Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffR
Consider the math around the first two shots of the game: Around 10% of shots on goal are going to result in goals in most leagues. So it's not going to be uncommon to see the first or second shot on a team go in - it'll typically happen to a specific team about every 5 games, and every third game will see at least one team score on one of its first two shots. The chances of one team's first or second shot scoring in 3 consecutive games, as in the first post, would be a little under 1 in 25 - I don't think that's even enough to call it "rare"; most teams would see it happen multiple times in an NHL-length season.
|
I understand your math on it, but I think you've got some bias in the sample size. True, 10% of shots result in goals, but not 10% of
first shots result in goals. Shots on the power play have a higher percentage of going in than even strength or shorthanded shots.
If a team were scored upon the first or second shot of every fifth game, that would mean that there were on average 16 games for every NHL team where this scenario happened. Way too high.
Less than 1/3 of all goals in the NHL were scored in the first period, and of those first period goals only a
fraction of those goals were goals on the first or second shot.
Here's the citation on the per period goals:
NHL Stats