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Old 03-16-2019, 05:34 PM   #10
NoOne
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the take a pitch exploit wouldn't work if it re-assessed the total probability each pitch relative to new contexts/variables. it does not. so 0-2 really doesn't matter compared to 0-0 as far as your percent chance of getting a good outcome. it was already worked out in proportion at a lower resolution. the percentages still play out properly over time, but they were crunched before 2 strikes in the count. (*mostly.. as in enough to make this exploit the best possible way to win in ootp)

i'm sure some subtle things may change, but nothing of great impact.

otherwise, why does take a pitch work? you should avearge 1 run or less if you took a pitch until 2 strikes every single AB in RL.

playing out games isn't much different thanspectating unless you are abusing an exploit to increase advantages, really. in fact, the choices you have mostly reduce chance of winning rather than help -- in that you are more likely to choose a lower-percentage option than the right one, because there are far more of bade choices than good. i'm sure the new defensive stuff is a bit more impactful. i have not done this exploit since those were inserted, i think.

l/r split is heavily dependant on pitches thrown etc... so if stuff is just averaged and the random seed is rolled once per PA, it's fairly limited in effect after that point. the numbers were already crunched when it determined likely outcome from the seed.

(*** simplified... 1 seed value does not have a discrete outcome. there are other factors at play, but just not the bulk of the total pie. many things are already summarized in a lower-res modeling.)
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