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Old 11-24-2019, 01:13 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
It's only "unexplainable" if you don't understand probabilities.

You said they reached the championship series 11 times without winning. So, they then won 1 out of 12 times they reached the CS.

Assuming they were something like to 50/50 to win a series, we'd expect they would have made the WS 6 times. Again, assuming about a 50/50 split, you'd then expect 3 WS wins.

They got 1

If you flipped a coin 6 times and got 1 head, instead of 3, would that be "unexplainable"? Hardly.

If you wanted to figure their real odds of just winning 1 WS in 116 seasons (as opposed to just looking at times they made the CS), you might find it's 1 in 10,000 or something. Certainly rare. But certainly explainable.

That's not to say it's not interesting when it happens in the little universes we've created though.
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