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Old 11-24-2019, 01:02 PM   #7
CBeisbol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpeters1734 View Post
They did it! After their 116th season and 50th try in the postseason, the Boston Mud Hens are world champions!

I've never seen such an unexplainable streak
It's only "unexplainable" if you don't understand probabilities.

You said they reached the championship series 11 times without winning. So, they then won 1 out of 12 times they reached the CS.

Assuming they were something like to 50/50 to win a series, we'd expect they would have made the WS 6 times. Again, assuming about a 50/50 split, you'd then expect 3 WS wins.

They got 1

If you flipped a coin 6 times and got 1 head, instead of 3, would that be "unexplainable"? Hardly.

If you wanted to figure their real odds of just winning 1 WS in 116 seasons (as opposed to just looking at times they made the CS), you might find it's 1 in 10,000 or something. Certainly rare. But certainly explainable.


That's not to say it's not interesting when it happens in the little universes we've created though.
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