Quote:
Originally Posted by kq76
Do you have dynamic evolution on?
Those modifiers are way out of whack. I can't right now, but I would test what a newly created MLB league's totals and modifiers are in OOTP 20.
Also, in case you don't know, and if it hasn't changed, changing totals creates an inverse effect. That is, lowering your home run totals will actually increase them in the future.
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No, dynamic evolution is off.
The modifiers do seem to be way out-of-whack, but they are the correct modifiers for my current talent pool. I've attached a comparison between the simulation results and real-life 2018 results. The rates are very close. They wouldn't be close without those particular modifiers.
So the problem isn't really the league totals or modifiers, it's why my talent pool requires such out-of-whack modifiers.
I don't know the answer, but here are a few thoughts:
For one thing, we do seem to be entering a new era in baseball with home runs and strikeouts occurring at much higher rates than even just a few years ago. When you have a standard MLB league the ratings of the players can reflect this right off the bat (ratings, being based on projections, will automatically reflect the probabilities of all of the potential events) so the modifiers can be near 1.
On the other hand, for a fictional league you don't get to pre-tailor the ratings - you have to depend upon the player creation algorithm. Then if you want things come out statistically in a particular way, you do the auto-calc to get things to match what you want. And. That seems to work really well at reproducing whatever overall league stats you want. But...
I think it does become a problem for individual performances. I suspect that having a large modifier will expand the difference in results between the top players in the league and the average (just like multiplying a set of numbers by a constant greater than one will increase the standard deviation of that set of numbers).
The program deals with this for most of baseball history by having different player creation modifiers that reflect the changing style of baseball through the years. But these all end up at 1 and stay there starting in 2005 so they aren't tracking the recent changes in style. (check out the era_modifiers.txt file in the database folder)
Another thought though - maybe it's my lack of minor leagues. I have 5 draft rounds and creating players for 6 rounds. This is the default for a no-minors league, but maybe it's messing up the talent pool. I could try increasing the number of rounds or adding minor leagues and see if it makes a difference. I sort of doubt if it would make a difference since I think the developers would have thought about this and would manage the talent pool to get reasonable results for whatever setup you're using. But I could try it and see.
Anyway. This is mainly directed to the developers - they're the ones who know how all of this works internally, so they ought to be able to determine if this is a problem or working as intended. Of particular interest is whether of not the low PA-weighted power rating of 36 is intentional or represents a problem. Just for completeness, here are all of the PA-weighted (or BF for pitchers) league average ratings:
Contact: 47.5
Gap: 57.7
Power: 36.6
Eye: 46.6
Avoid K's: 53.5
Stuff: 63.7
Movement: 41.0
Control: 48.1
In the meantime, there are a few things I can play around with and see if I can get a realistic and exciting alternate baseball history...