Quote:
Originally Posted by ASURay
Here's the best model I have right now:
FIP_p = 8.661141 - (.01747*STUFF) - (.03291*MOV) - (.01737*CON)
This thread motivated me to update some of my numbers today. This model uses data from all pitchers in my league with at least 500 career IP across any league level. It actually correlates better to Perfect League FIP from last week than the model that uses only PL data. I'm guessing that will change as the amount of PL-only data increases.
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Any thoughts or theories on how to adjust this based on a pitcher's pitch Tendency, if at all? For instance, Syndergaard 2018 (neutral), Drysdale PEAK (flyball), and Mordecai Brown PEAK (ex. flyball) all calculate to ~3.68. Surely they're not "equal". Is there any direct correlation between pitch tendency and home runs? Or is it an algorithm combined with movement rating and ballpark factors?