[BirdWatcher]

I find myself thinking about the order of the Brewers lineup especially with the return to the active roster of Joe McPhillips.

So let's take a look at some factors and questions regarding this.

First of all, the obvious truth that is a complicating factor for the Brewers lineup is the lack of a true cleanup hitter. Thus far in the 1973 season the player who has most often filled this role is Bobby Erbakan. And he has done a good job with a slash line of .371/.426/.506 when hitting cleanup. But recent indications from the Brewers scouting staff are that they believe he has reached his maximum potential in terms of home run power. Where once it was hoped that the 21 HR's he hit in 1971 were just a hint of greater power in the future it is now felt that this likely represents his ceiling. In an average year it is expected that Erbakan could hit 15-20 HR's, but probably not much more than that. In the future the cleanup could be Joe McPhillips spot to lose. While he is still hardly the prototypical cleanup hitter he is thought to have the best power potential of any current Brewers player. Again, on most teams McPhillips might likely profile best as a #3 hitter or even possibly #2 or a leadoff hitter with some pop, given his speed and great on-base abilities.

The fact is that Erbakan, like several hitters in the Brewers lineup, profiles best as a #3 hitter. But at the moment that spot mostly belongs to veteran superstar Ryan Rodgers. And Rodgers is having another good season at the plate. In his 324 plate appearances in the #3 slot he has hit .329/.448/.438. Obviously one of Rodgers great strengths is his ability to get on base, both with the base hit and the walk. But while he still hits a good deal of extra base hits (he is on pace for 32 doubles and 6 triples this season) he will rarely hit a ball over the fence and has yet to hit a home run this season. In some ways one might see him as being more suited to leading off or hitting 2nd, but the problem there is that while he still has decent speed he is a very poor base runner. Also, Rodgers is quite prone to hitting into the double play.

Pat Rondeau on the other hand has great speed and rarely gets doubled up. He is having a career year at age 30 and is a free agent at the end of the season and all indications are that the Brewers will let him seek his fortune elsewhere (though with mixed emotions.) This year Rondeau, in 287 plate appearances hitting out of the #2 spot, has hit .386/.408/.498. Rondeau, like Rodgers, has very little over the fence power, though he has hit 1 homer this season. But also like Rodgers, he is on pace for 32 doubles. He also is on pace for 9 triples and 30 stolen bases.

But why isn't Rondeau hitting leadoff? He has done so a bit, with 93 plate appearances in that role. And while the sample size is small, he hasn't hit as well in the leadoff slot (.284/.312/.341). But probably the biggest reason is that there is no obvious replacement for him at #2. The player most likely to take over these duties next season in Rondeau's almost sure absence is right fielder Josh Schaeffer. While Schaeffer does not possess Rondeau's elite speed- in fact the recent reports from our scouting staff indicate that his pure speed is less than earlier believed- he is a very good base stealer and an above average base runner. And he is far more likely than Rondeau to get on base via the walk. Schaeffer has also shown himself to be a good contact hitter and it is now felt that he has more HR power potential than earlier predicted. There are some concerns about his handedness splits and that is an issue we will discuss a bit more about the team in general below.

So who hits leadoff? At this time that has mostly fallen to shortstop Chad Brown. While Brown has elite speed and base-stealing/base-running abilities and is a good contact hitter, his on base skills are mediocre due to an inability to draw walks. In a traditional lineup Brown might profile best in the second slot in the lineup and in a more modern, sabermetric lineup he might be a better #7 guy. And in fact, with Brown's continued second half struggles at the plate there are thoughts of moving him down to #7 but the question remains, who then leads off?

Let's move back down the lineup a bit now. Jonathan Koch has done a nice job from the 5 spot this season as in his 158 plate appearances there he has gone .322/.335/.514, hitting 6 of his team-leading 12 HR's. Although he does lead the team in round trippers he really isn't likely to ever be a cleanup hitter. He has occasionally hit higher in the order- mostly 2nd- but although he is a good contact hitter with some pop and the speed to get infield hits and avoid double plays a bit, his lack of plate patience and proneness to strikeouts leave him more suited to a spot closer to the bottom of the order.

Andrew Kennedy has appeared in many positions in the lineup but the one he has held most often, and most successfully, is the #6 slot. Interestingly, this is where the left-handed hitting Kennedy is most likely to reside when the starting pitcher is left-handed. But more about that below. Kennedy has also hit quite well in the #2 slot but his lack of speed is somewhat of a hindrance there. Mike Foster has also hit in the #6 slot quite a bit and in his 51 plate appearances there he has gone .327/.333/.347. He has more often hit at #7, which wouldn't seem ideal for the very slow Foster, but in his 231 plate appearances there he has gone .289/.328/.431 and come up with some big hits.

The number 8 slot has pretty much always been reserved for one of the Brewers catchers. And that is almost sure to remain true for the foreseeable future. But here is perhaps where we should begin our discussion about handedness splits. I didn't even realize until I started to research this today that starting catcher Kevin Curtis has gone .321/.464/.505 against left handed pitchers and just .151/.230/.183 against right-handers in nearly the same number of plate appearances. Backup Spencer Wilson has hit almost exclusively against right handers and gone .234/.323/.366 against them. Although the 3-time Gold Glover Curtis clearly has great value beyond his bat, it appears we might need to consider getting Wilson into more games where we are facing right handed pitchers.

So here is the interesting thing about the Brewers and handedness- we almost always have much worse win-loss records when we face left-handed starters. Although this isn't as strongly true this year, it is still somewhat true. And while it might make some sense since some of our best hitters- Pat Rondeau and Andrew Kennedy- are left-handed the reality is that they both fare pretty well against same-handed pitchers. In fact, Andrew Kennedy this year has feasted on left-handed pitching to the tune of .357/.382/.520 while hitting .335/.388/.460 against right handed pitchers. And while Rondeau has been out of the world good against right handers (.378/.402/.481) he has been very respectable against lefties (.337/.364/.421). Now granted, a few of the younger left-handed hitters on the team- in particular Josh Schaeffer and Joe McPhillips- see pretty significant drops in production against same-sided pitchers. But also a factor is that right handed middle of the order force Ryan Rodgers has hit much better against right-handed pitchers (.357/.455/.468) than left-handed ones (.295/.429/.393.) Jonathan Koch has been fairly consistent no matter the handedness of the pitcher and Mike Foster, another right-handed hitter, has actually hit for a better batting average against righties though he has hit for more power against lefties. On the other hand, switch-hitting Chad Brown hits better from the right side and therefore fares better with lefties on the mound (.315/.337/.407) than righties (.279/.304/.334).

So, to sum up, the Brewers have a lot of guys who would be good #3 hitters (Erbakan, Rodgers, McPhillips, Kennedy, possibly even Schaeffer), almost nobody who is really suited to cleanup, and not a very clear cut option at leadoff either. We've been using slower players with decent contact and some power at #7, which isn't really ideal. And we've been using a leadoff hitter who isn't really all that good at getting on base, especially against right handed pitchers. Though he is very good once he does get on base. As good as the Brewers offense has been this year, it could be argued that a bit better lineup construction could make it even better. Though some of the challenges there have to do with the nature of the talent on the team and also the loss of players like McPhillips to injury.