[Bub13]

We won 19 games, new players looked good, and (in general) I like our lineup. However...this Spring Training was a major bummer.

First, the good. It's Spring Training, so the games don't count, but wins any time are better than losses. Our new DH, Nate Hullinger, hit 7 HR, a good start; 3B Adam Groff hit the cover off the ball; all of our possible backup OF hit well, giving me a difficult decision for final lineup positions; Orlando Villanueva looks good as our new backup catcher.

Now, the bad: Injuries. We suffered major setbacks in two critical positions, and a third to a top regular. First, and least critical, LF Travis McArthur will miss a month, but we're covered with adequate replacement while we wait for him to come back. Now the worse news... Closer Jack Shewmake will miss three months, throwing my bullpen into disarray. And...our new FA jewel Brady Dunne, having a perfect ST through three starts, blew out his elbow and will be out for over a year. Fourteen months, to be exact. His signing cost us our next first round pick, and now we won't even have him for this season, and likely half of next year.


The Lineup
For now, Steve Miller will be our closer. Miller's got good stuff, hits 101 MPH, and keeps the ball down. If he falters, we'll move Ryan Key from setup. I like our bullpen, but was counting on Shewmake being our lights-out closer. So his loss sets us back, but we have options. Five of our current seven relievers (not counting Shewmake) are new to us, so I expect some shaking out of responsibilities. But the talent is there. Newbie Bryan Dever is our other setup man, with Adrian Bolin, Vinny Cruz, and Chris Mayer in middle relief. Aaron Glass is the LOOGY. Cruz is also our emergency starter.

Dunne's loss hurts my pride, but I still like our rotation. Ken Clark, Steve Brock, and Bobby Little return to anchor things. Tom DiFranco came over from Minnesota and had a bad spring, but for now he's our #2 starter. Dunne's injury meant good news for Jimmy Wunderlich: he's had two bad seasons for us, but was unhittable in three spring starts. Keep that momentum up, Jimmy!

McArthur's injury means Rule 5 pickup Ernesto Martinez gets a month in LF to show his stuff. Holdover Kelvin Moreno and newbie Jason Raymer are the backups. Josh Drayton and Chris Wiggins are the other two starters. In the infield, we're looking forward to a strong season from super rookie Adam Groff. Ryan Hebert moves from third to second to make room for him. Jeremy Dunklee is back at first, as is Jim Mullen at short. Super sub Ervin Miranda backs them all up.

Austin Collins had a strong spring, and there was a clear winner for the role as his backup. Rule 5 draftee Jon Hudson went hitless in the spring, so he'll probably be released. Villanueva hit well to win the role, and holdover Jim Yancy will go to AAA and be the first callup.

Nate Hullinger is a solid power bat at DH.


Player Development Snapshot
We were a top five system last year, but most of our top prospects spent the season in the majors, so they no longer count. As a result, we've dropped to thirtieth (of 36 teams). SP Rob Hart is our top prospect, rating 49th in MLB. If his control develops, he's a #2 or #3 starter. He's 20 and still developing. Our only other rated prospect is 19-year-old OF Mel Carillo, ranked 166th. My scouts still swear he's got potential to be a top of the lineup hitter with 20-25 HR power. Both guys will start the season in AA. A more detailed look at the system will come after the June draft.


Season Predictions
MLB does not like us this year. The league says we'll win 83 games and miss the playoffs. We'll have a terrible offense and hit few homers. They do say we'll have the second best pitching in the AL, so that's something. Toronto, Cleveland, and Oakland will win their divisions, with Boston and Seattle as the wild card teams. In the NL, the Mets are predicted to win their first division title since 2006, with Pittsburgh and the Dodgers also topping their divisions. Cincinnati and Montreal are the wildcards. Four guys are predicted to hit 50 HR, with Pittsburgh's Brendan Glenn in line for a triple crown.

Frankly, this is crap. On paper, our hitting surpasses our pitching, even if we don't live up to last year's numbers. I think we've got the talent to win at least 90 games, given that we won 104 last year with largely the same lineup. A 21-game decline doesn't seem likely, barring extreme circumstances. Plus, we were #5 in off-season WAR gained, at 6.5...even if we did lose half of that with Dunne's injury. No, we'll be better than 83 wins.

As an aside, the Yankees gained the most WAR this off-season: 11.5. They remade their bullpen, and gained a #1 SP. They still stink, however. The Phillies, Rangers, and Dodgers are next in line, with us at #5. At the bottom, Portland lost 11.3 WAR, losing their top SP, their CF, and their 1B platoon. Pittsburgh is next, having lost two top SP and their #1 catcher. Their lineup is still potent, though they may give up a lot more runs this season.

We'll see. I'm still optimistic we'll make the playoffs again.

Next up: Start of season!