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Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr
I hesitate to 100% agree with you. I think you have to look @ what they did OOC, how tough their conference is, and any other extenuating circumstances.
As for Indy, I don't think you have to worry about them getting an @ large bid. They are going to have to win the Big T1e4n tourney in order to get in the NCAA's. The OOC has a win over erratic L'ville, a sinking fast Marquette, and a blow out home loss to dook. The Luckeyes are tied with them on the bubble & beat them in their only meeting. And I'm not aware of huge injury problems.
Minnesota, TCU, Texas & St.John's are the other sub .500 teams on the bubble. The Gophers OOC is unimpressive & there is an inexcusable 27 pt loss @ Illinois.
Texas had a strong OOC. but are only 16-15 overall. They suspended their top scorer & went 1-4 in his absence. So the committee might still give them a break despite the mediocre record.
I will find TCU personally interesting. They lost just once vs a pitiful OOC. Have lost 6 of their last 8. But they have also been caught up in the adidas scandal. And I wonder how the selection committee will handle those teams. Will they look for excuse to keep them out to avoid a potentially embarrassing situation of having to vacate wins?
St.John's has lost 4 of their last 5. But I remember a ref's inadvertent whistle directly costing them a win @ Seton Hall and knocking them out of the rankings. That would have put them @ .500. So again, you wonder if that will factor in the selection.
Of course, a bunch of these teams wouldn't be considered if the NCAA didn't expand the teams invited to 68.
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I could write a dissertation on the whole rankings and it favors top conferences, but is not consistent. The big 12 is a great example. The last few years they have been considered the best conference but it is largely by beating each other. They play in the tourney and get knocked out quickly, and next year best conference again.