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Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr
What you are talking about is OPS+. I guess. I really don;t know. The OPS I'm talking about you just add the slug & OBP.
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No, OPS
That was the point about the toaster.
OPS is easy-once someone has already figured out OBP and SLG for you.
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If you call what you posted "easy" congrats. You are a math wunderkind.
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No.
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What is BR? What is FR? What is BSR? etc..........
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Batting Runs. Fielding Runs. Base Running Runs. Etc...
If one can understand OBP and SLG and add them together (even if they can't, or don't, figure them out for themselves and just look them up) then one can understand Batting Runs (how many runs the player produced by hitting), Fielding Runs (how many runs the player saved defensively), Base Running Runs (how many runs the player was worth running the bases) and add them together (even if they can't, or don't, figure them out for themselves and just look them up.
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Yes fangraps "explains" each one....... but what is wRAA? What is wOBA? what is lgwOBA? etc, etc etc.
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Start with wOBA (weighted On Base Average) is like batting average, except it counts extra base hits more than singles (makes sense, eh?) and counts walks and hit by pitches (they count less than singles).
https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/
lgwOBA (league wOBA) is the average wOBA for the entire league.
wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average) is based on wOBA and is how many runs above (or below) average a player was worth based off of their hitting (not including base running (except in how base running effects a player getting (or not getting) an extra base hit).
https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/wraa/
There's also wRC+ (adjusted weighted Runs Created) which is like OPS+ in that it compares to league average how many runs a player's batting was worth on a rate basis. 100=average. >100 is above average. <100 is below average.
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What is the league adjustment? What is the park adjustment? How did they figure that out? How do I know the figure they came up with is accurate? How do I know it has any merit? And after all that, how do I know all those numbers really did come up with a true depiction of that player's value in that stat?
Now I have to all those questions answered similarly in every other formula that is used to create the formula components that make up the formula. How much time is that going to take? After I explain it to myself, will I agree with it, or call it a bunch of hooey?
How is that not complicated?
As I've said before on this forum, I applaud the effort the sabermetric fanboys have made. It would be nice to have definitive stat that measures a player's value completely instead of just "eyeballin' " it like we have for years. Keep working on it. Hope you get 'er done.
But if I don't understand it, if there is no consensus on it, if the creators of each one each year have to adjust it because it wasn't "just right", then how am I going to put faith in it? Because that is just what it is...faith. I have to hope that it's correct. Not know that it is correct. That complicates things. I don't dismiss WAR in any sports debate. But I also don't automatically accept it either. It is one more spice in the gumbo.
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No
It's not faith. Not at all.
You can prove that WAR works. And since WAR works you can extrapolate that the component parts work.
Here's the proof.
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ird-order-wins
You can do this yourself to confirm.
Remember WAR measures what each player does without considering what his teammates have done (for the most part). So, if a batter homers, or a defender makes an error, or a pitcher walks a hitter WAR doesn't know if the bases were loaded, or empty, or how many outs there were, or what the score was, etc.
And looking at each players' individual WAR and adding them up for each team, and comparing how many wins a team 'should' have by WAR and how many wins they actually have, you see that WAR very closely reflects the number of actual wins.
There are, of course, differences. Because a solo home run in a 10-1 game impacts who wins the game a lot less than a 9th inning walk-off home run does.
But try looking at a team's collective batting average, home runs, put outs, errors, ERAs, and walks given up and try to guess how many wins they have.
WAR works
It's a fact.
Yes, people are always trying to improve it.
It's a good thing that no one decided that it was good enough when they first thought of it. We should change our opinions as we get more information.