Quote:
Originally Posted by zrog2000
It absolutely works like that today with a lot more data. Teams know who to run on and who not to. Maybe teams were really dumb 50 years ago over and over again, but I also find that hard to believe. After a certain point, it's just plain stupid to get thrown out again and again against someone with a great arm, even without any helpful data. Each assist is just about meaningless without analyzing what happened. If someone gets thrown out by 40 feet, the fielder deserves almost no credit because the assist was caused by being a terrible base runner.
And then you see an assist like this and it's worth about 10 normal assists because of how amazing it was. Other RFs probably throw out Kemp on that play about 1% of the time if that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ele_6M4rUHQ |
Actually, an assist is worth an assist. Sure, if you throw out the potential tying run at the plate to end the game, it might have more impact. But it's still one assist.
Seeing Dave Parker hose Brian Downing at the plate in the 1979 All Star Game didn't stop people from trying to run on him. Of course, Parker was almost as likely to throw it 20 rows into the stands as he was to throw a guy out.
Having the data didn't stop people from running on Ichiro. Yasiel Puig, who has an excellent arm, throws out double digit runners every year (or projects out to for his partial seasons).And the data clearly didn't keep Kemp from trying for two against Mookie despite what we know about his throwing (off topic: I'm a Sox fan and I heart Mookie).