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Unless I am completely misunderstanding though (always a possibility), the OP's essential question here is whether there is something inherently amiss with the game that leads to different (bad, in his case) outcomes when you play games out in 3D rather than just simming games.
And given that nobody is rushing in to say, yes, this is happening to me too!, and many (including me, though I'm just saying it now) experience more or less reasonable, expected general outcomes when playing out games, I trust that the answer is, no, something is not really wrong with the play game feature.
Now, that is very different from saying that nothing is wrong in the OP's saved game where this is occurring. It certainly sounds like something might be corrupted in some way. Though honestly I can't imagine what would cause this kind of discrepancy between 3D game play and simmed game results. So, statistical long-shot or not, this could still just be a statistical anomaly. (After all, someone does win big in the lottery occasionally, no matter how long the odds are.)
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