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chazzycat · 05-23-2016, 01:14 PM

1) FIP and xFIP (or FIP-) tell different stories. FIP is just about walks/strikeouts/home runs allowed, which can be valuable, whereas the adjusted stats apply a league-average home run rate. That can also be valuable, but sometimes it doesn't make sense to apply a league-average home run rate. For example if you are looking to acquire flyball-prone pitchers because you play in a big park like SF or SEA, then using FIP- is going to make them look much worse then they are likely to perform in reality. It doesn't take too many home runs to drastically change someone's ERA, so applying the wrong HR/FB ratio can really make a difference.

Example: last year Jeff Samardzjia had a bad year. By most measures including FIP- he was not good. However...he has a pronounced flyball tendency, and is right-handed. San Francisco's park is the best in baseball at suppressing left-handed home runs, whereas the White Sox stadium is one of the worst. So it really doesn't make sense to apply a league-average HR rate. I'm guessing, that was a major factor in the Giants decision to offer him $200 million. If they had looked solely at FIP- they would not have ever signed him. So far, the results are very encouraging with a 2.66 ERA and 2.78 FIP this year.

05-23-2016, 01:14 PM	#7
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	1) FIP and xFIP (or FIP-) tell different stories. FIP is just about walks/strikeouts/home runs allowed, which can be valuable, whereas the adjusted stats apply a league-average home run rate. That can also be valuable, but sometimes it doesn't make sense to apply a league-average home run rate. For example if you are looking to acquire flyball-prone pitchers because you play in a big park like SF or SEA, then using FIP- is going to make them look much worse then they are likely to perform in reality. It doesn't take too many home runs to drastically change someone's ERA, so applying the wrong HR/FB ratio can really make a difference. Example: last year Jeff Samardzjia had a bad year. By most measures including FIP- he was not good. However...he has a pronounced flyball tendency, and is right-handed. San Francisco's park is the best in baseball at suppressing left-handed home runs, whereas the White Sox stadium is one of the worst. So it really doesn't make sense to apply a league-average HR rate. I'm guessing, that was a major factor in the Giants decision to offer him $200 million. If they had looked solely at FIP- they would not have ever signed him. So far, the results are very encouraging with a 2.66 ERA and 2.78 FIP this year. Last edited by chazzycat; 05-23-2016 at 01:16 PM.