View Single Post
Old 10-25-2019, 02:04 AM   #36
Lemandria
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 702
Aug 5, 2049 - Still better than last year.

Things fell off a little bit in July, as predicted by the schedule this was slated as the roughest stretch of the season, opposition-wise. Still, we didn’t fare too badly, and kept the losing streaks short.


15-10 for July, our worst month of the season, @ .600. We maintain a comfortable lead in the division +12 1/2. And we lead both leagues combined by +6 1/2.


The hounds are baying at our heels, though. Several teams have been picking up games. Gulp.

Offensively, we’re fine, but runs scored we’ve fallen off a hair to 2nd. Reflective of the better oppo pitching in this stretch of schedule, I suppose.


Defensively, we’re still leading every category. Palmer and Sain appear to have taken most of the abuse, at least numerically. The life of a #4 and #5 pitcher.


The bullpen is trying to take up the slack, a couple of individuals getting hammered, the rest cruising. They’ve fallen back to 2nd-best bullpen, numerically. Again, I believe this to be reflective of the rougher-relative schedule during this period, and hopefully not a sign of rocky shoals unfriendly to Penguins.


Run differential is down to +177 over 107 games (+1.65per), and the Yaks are now nearly matching that run for run. They’re in another division, thankfully, but the look like our eventual post season matchup, assuming we both survive that long.

Pessimistic Statistical Forecast Model now predicts 103 wins. Plenty, in any sane season, and the range of forecast error is narrowing.

Moose is projected to win 21 games. Greg Olson 39 Saves. Three in the top ten pitchers for ERA (Dean and Greinke).

But I won’t lie, the short losing steaks we’ve been suffering, with increasing frequency, are nagging at my pessimism. This could all go south fast, if a couple of whales spend some serious coinage.

Keep playing, boys. We’re running with the current roster to the end, win or lose.


The model says that August is another decidedly Penguin-unfriendly month. Order up some extra kippers for the rotation, this could be a bumpy ride.


Home


Meet our sister FTP teams! Sacramento Big Tomato and Vancouver Brute Force, experiments in decidedly different parks and strategies.
__________________
FOTF victim
Farewell

Last edited by Lemandria; 10-25-2019 at 02:06 AM.
Lemandria is offline   Reply With Quote