July 16, 1984
Game 1984-92: Riverfront Stadium - Phillies 4, Reds 3 / 41-51
Hey, a good win. In his first start back from the IL, Steve Carlton goes six and gives up three runs late to put us down 3-2. In the ninth, Juan Samuel singles with two outs, then Glenn Wilson doubles him home. A Mike Schmidt intentional walk later, and double-switch replacement Garry Maddox strikes a big winning single. Phew.
Also, Darren Daulton hits his first major league home run. Heck yeah.
And also tonight, Tony Fernandez singles in the ninth inning against California to run his hitting streak to 30 games. He’s hitting .377. Something to watch.
July 17, 1984
Big news out of New York: Mets closer Ed Lynch is out for the season with a torn ulnar collateral ligament. He’d lost save opportunities to Doug Sisk, but the loss is big. Gives me another team to think about with an Al Holland trade, and I really don’t care if it’s the Mets. They have a farm system; time to look into it.
(I do, and they won’t part with anyone unless it’s for something big.)
So, let’s check in on contending bullpens to see who might be interested in Al Holland. First, let’s go over bullpen ERA needs:
- Toronto - 4.24 bERA - Can really use a stopper to push Dennis Lamp to a setup role and move Jim Acker far away from the end of games.
- Kansas City - 4.59 bERA - A better setup option than Joe Beckwith, or just a lefty change of pace, is needed.
- Seattle - 4.38 bERA - Can use a better closer or stopper than Mike Stanton.
- Atlanta - 4.06 bERA - A more reliable lefty than Terry Forster is necessary.
After checking in, nothing seems to work with either Kansas City, Seattle, or Atlanta.
Meanwhile, the call-back market for Al Holland, if we eat none of the contract, is the same as Lezcano’s market. If I eat 35 percent (which is what we can do without going over our cash flow), Kansas City enters the fray but not offering a top prospect; the best are Bill Pecota (30/40) and Mark Ryal (33/40). Both seem to be destined to be bench players, which isn’t enough here. The only regular being offered that’s interesting is Candy Maldonado in Baltimore, but he can’t play much defense (he’s supposed to be a RF) and he’s too much a liability against right-handed pitching.
Raising the “I’ll eat it” slider to 75 percent; that welcomes Toronto into the mix, and teams change the kind of prospect I could get, but it still seems not enough. Next, asking for regulars and not prospects … and finally, a bite in the form of a player I previously targeted, CF Rick Leach in Toronto. This at least tells me that if I ate fewer cash, Toronto would entertain this deal.
So, here is my center fielder group, which has changed in a month. In order of who I’d ask about first:
- CLE - Brett Butler - 27 - 49/56 (50 CF), 402 PA, .247/.305/.319, 22 XBH
- TOR - Rick Leach - 27 - 47/50 (65 CF), 110 PA, .221/.255/.404, 11 XBH, -0.4 ZR, .995 EFF
- CWS - Dave Stegman - 30 - 48/48 (60 CF), 294 PA, .226/.313/.362, 21 XBH, +3.6 ZR, 1.023 EFF
- PIT - Eddie Vargas - 25 - 48/48 (50 CF), 159 PA, .248/.333/.418, 11 XBH, +0.9 ZR, .995 EFF
- SD - Gerry Davis - 25 - 50/50 (50 CF), 223 PA, .194/.300/.272, 10 XBH, -0.4 ZR, .995 EFF
- SD - Alan Wiggins - 26 - 48/48 (50 CF), 293 PA, .264/.343/.319, 9 XBH
- CWS - Rudy Law - 27 - 47/47 (50 CF), 199 PA, .223/.265/.310, 11 XBH, -0.6 ZR, .980 EFF
I changed this around since Leach has shown more potential in the last few weeks, and his defense - while not great statistically this season - should be the best among his peers here. I’m also willing to bring Stegman back in here, as this season he’s been slugging, and he’s also having a good defensive season.
So I go to Cleveland for Butler, which means I have to add some cash to make Holland’s contract work over there. They won’t even hear of it unless I add Mike Diaz or John Russell, at least. Considering Butler’s still paltry numbers, I wouldn’t want to do that without a player in return, and there’s nothing else in that organization I like enough. Meh.
Moving to Toronto, they want Holland plus a prospect for Leach. That doesn’t sound right to me, even if we’re talking about something close to filler. I mean, I like Leach, but Holland is the prize here.
Then there’s Chicago, who would do Holland for Stegman one-for-one. Stegman is under control through 1986, which works with me; still, I’d love a prospect in the deal. Chicago has three top-100 prospects: CF Daryl Boston, P Doug Drabek, and CF Russ Morman. None are touchable here, but I could go after RP Dave White (age 22, 40/40, 55 stuff, 35 movement, 45 control) or RP Kenneth Walker (age 23, 38/38, 65 stuff, 35 movement, 35 control). I actually like Walker a bit more, as he has a fully-formed fastball (55/55) and slider (65/65). He could learn in the majors this season.
Interestingly, if I was to pivot, I could get Stegman and LF Ron Kittle (70 power) for Holland and John Russell, something my assistant loves. I’m not so sure - Kittle has to play left (where he’s a -8.7 ZR), which means Von Hayes in right, where we only hope he could be average. Plus, Kittle strikes out a ton, which doesn’t work in a lineup with Juan Samuel (22.7% K rate) and Mike Schmidt (19.2% K rate), and he has no other above-average traits. Essentially we’re talking about a guy with one skill, and that isn’t enough when trading Russell, who plays good defense, can be a backup catcher, and has nearly the same power potential (60). I can’t in good conscience do this.
Back to Stegman and Walker; I also ask for SP John Johnson (age 20, 34/34, 50 stuff, 35 movement, 40 control), and Chicago GM Matt Gillespie says he’ll think about it.
I turn to Pittsburgh, and the conversation for Eddie Vargas starts with me adding prospects. No thanks. Same idea in San Diego for Gerry Davis. Again, Holland is the prize in every deal (except maybe a Butler trade); I’m not gutting my team to get a fringe starter.
That said, I still like Leach enough to keep Toronto in the mix. Let’s compare Stegman (age 30) and Leach (age 27):
Overall: Stegman
Potential: Leach
Contact O/P: Leach / Leach
Gap: DRAW / DRAW
Raw: DRAW / DRAW
Eye: Stegman / Stegman
Avoid K: Leach / Leach
Against Lefties: Stegman
Against Righties: Leach
Speed: Stegman
Stealing: Stegman
Baserunning: Stegman
Outfield Range: Leach
Outfield Error: Stegman
Outfield Arm: Leach
CF Rating: Leach
Career wRC+: Leach (76 to 75)
Career WAR: Stegman (0.3 to -1.0)
So, Leach has more potential, but for 1984 and ‘85 it’s a pretty even comparison. I’ll get more contact with Leach, but he doesn’t have the speed to turn BABIP in his favor (this season .225, career .250, though Stegman is career .225). The issue for both is poor play in short-ish samples. Leach has 718 career PA (.233/.299/.346), while Stegman has 556 career PA (.206/.291/.334).
Defense is what I want most. Stegman makes 96.7% of routine plays, 79.6% likely, 69.2% even, 50% unlikely, and 25% remote. To compare: Chet Lemon (the best CF in the game defensively) makes 98.7% routine, 90.3% likely, 78.3% even, 80.8% unlikely, and 14.8% remote, and that’s in a huge outfield (Tiger Stadium). Leach’s numbers are unavailable, as he’s played just four games in center. (For further comparison, Von Hayes is 96.2% routine, 66.2% likely, 51.5% even, 33.3% unlikely, and 66.7% remote).
Stegman or Leach would be upgrades from Hayes in center, but neither is a slam dunk to hit well enough to stay starting in 1985. The only potential free agent who I’d consider for center in 1985 is Fred Lynn, though he’ll command a decent salary and is more playable in right field. Also, the only CF in my farm system who projects as a starter is Luis Polonia, who’s 20 and probably doesn’t make the majors until 1986. Point is, I need someone, and it’s gotta be either Stegman or Leach.
Toronto won’t budge, and they won’t offer me much in terms of prospects to balance out what they want. The White Sox, meanwhile, are willing to work, and the difference between Leach and Stegman is so small that the added players in a Chicago trade really sway me in that direction. I’ll see what they think about Stegman, Walker, and Johnson for Holland.
Game 1984-93: Riverfront Stadium - Phillies 6, Reds 5 / 42-51
Boy does Al Holland make it adventurous, allowing two runs in the ninth and putting the winning run on first. But we win. Charles Hudson goes 7.1 IP (9 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), while - and I’m burying the lede - Juan Samuel probably has his best pro game, but in typical fashion (4-for-4, BB, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, SB, CS, E). Sammy’s now at .286/.334/.439 with 40 steals, and that works.
Meanwhile, Tony Fernandez’s 30-game hit streak ends. Shoot.
July 18, 1984
Chicago rejects the offer and wants a prospect along with Holland, so I take out John Johnson and ask for SP Rich Devincenzo (age 24, 29/29, 50 stuff, 35 movement, 30 control), who has a strong changeup and working curve, plus a passable fastball. My guys love him, and I think he has to become a reliever immediately. Chicago GM Matt Gillespie says yes.
Let’s do it.
TRADE
To Chicago White Sox
Al Holland - RP - 31
To Philadelphia Phillies
Dave Stegman - CF - 30
Kenneth Walker - RP - 23
Rich Devincenzo - SP - 24
I have my baseline center fielder for 1985 and possibly 1986. I also have a reliever I can plug into the bullpen right now, giving him a shot to solidify a role for ‘85. I also get a bit more of a flier who could be in the majors next season. Is it a perfect deal? No. But I like it.
- CF Dave Stegman assigned to MLB Philadelphia
- RP Kenneth Walker assigned to AAA Portland
- RP Rich Devincenzo assigned to AA Reading
- RP Ben Hayes promoted to MLB Philadelphia
- 1B Mark Funderburk demoted to AAA Portland
- RF Gib Siebert demoted to AA Reading
- RF Bobby Mitchell released
Necessary moves. Walker can immediately start in the majors, but he has an ERA just south of 8.00 in AAA, so I’d like to see him get some reps in Portland before I bring him up. He’ll be up, though. Ben Hayes, who had a 2.45 ERA, 17 K and 10 BB in Portland, comes to Philly. He’s 26 and is likely a blowout guy. Bill Campbell becomes the end-game reliever as a stopper, while Tug McGraw and Larry Andersen take on setup man duties.
Game 1984-94: Riverfront Stadium - Reds 11, Phillies 3 / 42-52
So Jerry Koosman doesn’t pitch well (5.1 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 H), and his reinforcements don’t help. Not a great first outing for Ben Hayes (0.2 IP, 5 ER, 67.50 ERA). Joe Price, with nine strikeouts, make us look silly. Three Ks each by Juan Samuel and Len Matuszek.