[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

We're talking about a rookie in May, when none of his stats have stabilized or have become meaningful. Home run rate most of all. And splits would be even less meaningful.

He has no minor league stats? What's more if none of his stats have stabilized or have become meaningful his AEV is no more meaningful as it too is based on small sample size. The average can skewed one way or another on some outlier hits (soft or hard) that are not at all indicative of his ability. And y'now what's going to show up in his stats if he hits enough balls high enough and hard enough to be home runs? Home runs.

You would not know the distance of any home runs if it weren't for statcast data. So I guess since you are evaluating a player using statcast data, then I'll assume you're just arguing against yourself. Exit velocity and launch angle estimates the distance!

If a batter, in a small sample size, has a good HR/AB ratio you don't need statcast to tell you that in that same small sample those balls were hit hard enough to clear the fence. If he didn't hit the ball hard enough and high enough the balls never would have gone out of the park in the first place. That's simple logic and it's simple logic that you are avoiding (yet I'm the one called the Troll). If, in a small sample size of say 100 ABs, our rookie has hit 15 home runs, I know from that alone that he has power and hits the ball hard and relatively high unless these were simply pop ups over very short fences or wind blown (I'll also know in what parks they were hit and I have data on whether these are good parks for home runs), data I can obtain without statcast.



I've said several times already that the AEV is not vital, you can evaluate without it if you know what you look for. You're arguing the opposite in the face of all logic and examples-real life and otherwise. In your world without knowing the actual mph number to the tenth you won't know if a player is a good home run hitter...never mind all of his actual stats that tell you that. If you must have statcast data to know who is a good home run hitter and can't go off of other stats, sorry, I can't help that.

Also, I guarantee you did not read this sentence:

Get back to us when the Yankees make a major big money commitment to someone out of the blue who no one knew was a good home run hitter but we only knew because of AEV..