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Here's my PL data to add:
Posey - 1087 games - 70 arm rating - 34.7% CS - .22 CS per game
Burgess - 1125 games - 49 arm rating - 35.2% CS - .26 CS per game
Burgess's lower arm rating is enticing more runners to go, but they are getting thrown out at roughly the same rate despite over 20 points of arm rating. So overall it's Burgess for the win.
Not saying everyone will experience this, but two thousand games is quite a lot of waiting around for a supposed advantage to manifest.
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