Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon
My theory (still to be proved by anything other than anecdote) is that exhausted pitchers with very low Stuff ratings will actually roll over backwards in mid-game to 255 or whatever the theoretical maximum Stuff rating actually is. Check your Ks in some of the sillier boxscores and see if they actually pick up as the game goes along. If you have both starting pitchers striking out the side in innings 10-12, that would tend to validate my theory. If they're being pulled for pinchhitters, I'm probably wrong.
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In a kinda random sample of 3 pitchers at the A level (in 1874) I find that stuff ratings are in the 30s (out of 250). I also find that the Ks start in the very FIRST inning. I looked at the game log for two games: in the FIRST inning all the outs for both teams were Ks
at the very beginning of the season when they should be fresh after vacationing for a couple of months in the Poconos.
This suggests that the cause of the K mania in the minors in the 1870s is not due to tired pitchers whose stuff ratings are right near zero to begin with (and flip down into the 200s as innings go by once they get tired).
At the same time, in the ML the one pitcher I looked at had stuff in the 20s (out of 250) and he stuck out maybe 1 player a game (versus minor league pitchers averaging 15 Ks or more a game) with their 30s stuff.
So while Mr. SwampD's theory at first glance seems plausible, it appears my observations have not been too kind to his theory.