Quote:
Originally Posted by highandoutside
I don't play with qualifying offers. Always seemed to me that it would add a layer of complication for the AI that would inevitably cause problems.
My problem is with the AI signing players in their early 30s to massive long term contracts. Modern GMs have finally learned this is a terrible idea. We need OOTP owners to learn this, too.
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I mean, do you have specific examples? Because outside of Kershaw, I'm not seeing that many massive contracts to guys in their early 30's on my end...
- Bumgarner's 30 and just signed a 4 year extension worth $20m/year w/ the Giants. He has a player opt-out after the 1st year.
- Donaldson was 32 and signed a 4 year extension worth $29m/year w/ the Angels
- DeGrom was 30 and signed a 4 year extension worth $15m/year w/ the Mets
- Keuchel was 30 and signed a 6 year deal worth $23m/year w/ the Cardinals
- Blackmon was 32 and signed a 5 year deal worth $23m/year w/ the Rockies
- AJ Polluck was 30 and signed a 6 year deal worth $14m/ year w/ the Dodgers
- Rick Porcello is 30 and signed a 7 year deal worth $23m/year w/ the Red Sox... but his yearly salary starts to de-escalate after year 4 and he has a vesting option attached to year 7, so really, it's only a 6 year deal at $23m/year guaranteed.
I don't consider these massive contracts. Most in-game contracts don't extend past a player turning 37 and if you look at their contract details, most of them have de-escalating yearly salaries and/or some type of options attached. And all of the above are big market teams who can afford them.
Again, this is why I feel QO's may play more of a role in all this than the computer simply running out of money and not being able to afford players. Take Mike Moustakas for example in the attachment below...
After the '18 season, he declined a QO from the Royals and hit FA. On May 3rd of '19, he signed a MINOR League deal w/ the Phillies. He had all of 200 plate appearances for the Phillies during the '19 season and was once again offered a QO (which he declined) at the end of the year...
Now it's the first day of the '19 FA period... and his contract demand is 2 years at $6.5m/year for a total of $13m...
1. Never mind the fact the Phillies shouldn't have been able to offer him a QO in the first place based on the real life QO rule (because he was previously offered one by KC)... why is he rejecting a $15m QO when he's only demanding a 2 year deal for $13m total?!
2. Why is Philly offering him a QO to begin with?! He signed a Minor League deal and only had 200 plate appearances, yet still offered him one, which leads me to believe the AI
knows who will accept a QO and who will not. And
if the AI
knows which players will accept a QO and who will not, it begs the question... does the AI use this as a strategy?
After looking back at the '19 draft log, the Phillies still had a 1st round, 2nd round, and 3rd round pick, so apparently, they didn't lose any picks for signing Moustakas despite having a comp attached. (probably, because he only signed a Minor League deal). At the end of the season, they offer him a QO, he rejects, and enters FA w/ another comp attached while only demanding $6.5m/year... which means, if he signs a MAJOR league contract during the offseason, they essentially get a free Supplemental First Round Pick. High reward w/ absolutely ZERO risk.
Another example... Harper signed a 1 year, $21.9m deal w/ the Rockies and went on to win the MVP award in '19. Go figure. Of course, first day of 2019 FA, and he's on the market again w/ another comp attached. High reward w/ absolutely ZERO risk.
Whether it's a lower tier guy like Moustakas or a Superstar like Harper, to me, it comes back to the QO's and why there are so many 1 year rentals in regards to RP's and such. Why would I, as a human player, give up a draft pick to sign Harper to a massive, long term contract when I could wait it out until Spring Training and rent him for a year at a much cheaper price knowing I could just get a comp pick back the following season?
And
if the AI
knows who will accept a QO and who will not... maybe the AI sees it this way too.