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VanillaGorilla · 10-14-2012, 08:02 PM

1954 introduces the 5 year wait after retirement for players to enter the Hall. This has several impacts. One is, there won't be any first ballot inductions until 1959.

This means the players in this class through 1958 will be players that have already been eligible for induction and, with some exceptions, did not make it in with previous standards.

The inductees will be lower in scores during this time than previously.

This is the first major outside factor that will influence the scores down towards a 4 average. Currently the average composite for players in the Hall is just below 6.

The "floor" of the data points has edged downward since the first class. We just won't see that many out of this world HOFers. Putting in 5 players from 60 years of history (the inaugural class) will yield a higher average than putting in 9 players that have already been picked over, as happened in 1945.

In 1945, we didn't simply see the floor continue to slope downwards, we saw it break as players were inducted not by the measures of Ink and HOF numbers, but by leader board placement. The "floor breakers" are Bill White, Roy Thomas, Babe Herman, and Hans Lorbert. Their induction created a significantly different standard for following inductees. We will see this happen again prior to 1959.

The inductees for the class of 1954 (Amby McConnell, Tommy Harper, and Gavvy Cravath) did not break the floor in the sense that they all got in on their Ink and or HOF number scores. However, their scores pull down the Hall averages. It is also important to note that a lot of players were looked at before these three and they were found not to have sufficient numbers to get in in 1945.

When all the players on the spreadsheet have been screened in a given year, and their are still spots to fill and the Hall committee goes back to the leader boards, then we will see the floor break, again, and we will see players get in who have scores below the previous floor.

The attached chart is complete through the 1954 inductions. We see how dominant Ty Cobb's career is here. His plot is the one above 16. The last three on the right, all clumped near 4 is the class of 1954. Knowing that these players had stronger scores than the majority of the other eligible players and knowing that no new players will be added to eligibility before 1959, it is all but a certainty that we will see at least one break of the floor prior to 1959.

All of this is in reference to hitters entering. There are lots of pitchers with numbers that won't put very much downward pressure on the standards. Some are still in the wait that will pull up the standards. But more hitters are getting in than pitchers, and it is their influence that will produce this predicted dynamic.

ADD: Ruth's RL composite including his pitching Ink as hitting Ink (which inflates the number) is 15.87. Cobb popping a 16 here is quite noteworthy.

10-14-2012, 08:02 PM	#31
VanillaGorilla All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,371 Blog Entries: 2	5 year wait now in effect 1954 introduces the 5 year wait after retirement for players to enter the Hall. This has several impacts. One is, there won't be any first ballot inductions until 1959. This means the players in this class through 1958 will be players that have already been eligible for induction and, with some exceptions, did not make it in with previous standards. The inductees will be lower in scores during this time than previously. This is the first major outside factor that will influence the scores down towards a 4 average. Currently the average composite for players in the Hall is just below 6. The "floor" of the data points has edged downward since the first class. We just won't see that many out of this world HOFers. Putting in 5 players from 60 years of history (the inaugural class) will yield a higher average than putting in 9 players that have already been picked over, as happened in 1945. In 1945, we didn't simply see the floor continue to slope downwards, we saw it break as players were inducted not by the measures of Ink and HOF numbers, but by leader board placement. The "floor breakers" are Bill White, Roy Thomas, Babe Herman, and Hans Lorbert. Their induction created a significantly different standard for following inductees. We will see this happen again prior to 1959. The inductees for the class of 1954 (Amby McConnell, Tommy Harper, and Gavvy Cravath) did not break the floor in the sense that they all got in on their Ink and or HOF number scores. However, their scores pull down the Hall averages. It is also important to note that a lot of players were looked at before these three and they were found not to have sufficient numbers to get in in 1945. When all the players on the spreadsheet have been screened in a given year, and their are still spots to fill and the Hall committee goes back to the leader boards, then we will see the floor break, again, and we will see players get in who have scores below the previous floor. The attached chart is complete through the 1954 inductions. We see how dominant Ty Cobb's career is here. His plot is the one above 16. The last three on the right, all clumped near 4 is the class of 1954. Knowing that these players had stronger scores than the majority of the other eligible players and knowing that no new players will be added to eligibility before 1959, it is all but a certainty that we will see at least one break of the floor prior to 1959. All of this is in reference to hitters entering. There are lots of pitchers with numbers that won't put very much downward pressure on the standards. Some are still in the wait that will pull up the standards. But more hitters are getting in than pitchers, and it is their influence that will produce this predicted dynamic. ADD: Ruth's RL composite including his pitching Ink as hitting Ink (which inflates the number) is 15.87. Cobb popping a 16 here is quite noteworthy. Attached Images Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 10-14-2012 at 08:12 PM.