Quote:
Originally Posted by bly08
1.) Is there any reason not to use FIP- (Fangraph's park and league adjusted FIP) over FIP? Is there any reason not to use any adjusted stat over their default counterpart? OPS+, etc.
2.) Is WPA useful?
3.) It seems that most of the battle with developing SPs is simply to get the ones with promising stuff to learn three good pitches. Most highly rated young prospects will have two potentially great pitches and something like 3/13 out of 1-20 for a third pitch when coming into the system, and most of them will never learn that third pitch and end up a serviceable reliever at best. I usually play modern day Red Sox saves and I don't ever remember Anderson Espinoza panning out as his third pitch never approaches average. What are the things I can do, besides the usual stuff like making sure prospects don't get blocked, hiring good personnel, looking for good make-up, etc, that will maximize the chances of a prospect learning a third pitch well enough to start?
4.) Should I interpret a drop in velocity for young pitchers as a sign of talent decline? And about how often do SPs who are converted to relievers get a boost in velocity and vice versa?
5.) Does G/F% matter if I have a good defensive outfield?
6.) Lastly, is the way to read pitching BABIP in that I should expect better/worse performance based on if I think my defense is better or worse than what the pitcher had?
Thanks
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1 & 2 -- use a plethora of stats to make decisions. i wouldn't make any decision based solely on 1 stat. personally, i don't like the all-in-one stats for the same reason i don't like the Overall rating... they can be useful, but they are far from precise at the moment. war, wpa, wrc would fall in this category.
also, if you are not 100% stats, trust the ratigns over statistics - while applying common sense. when i say ratings, i mean individual ratings of a FB or a currveball or movement and control etc... not overall ratings. if a SP has 80stuff / 70move / 60con he's going to pitch well no matter what his current stats tell you (ignoring complexities of pitch selection - ie at least 3 types and not all fastballs)....
it you are 100% stats or "Very Low" scouting accuracy, then also include statistics into your evaluation - but only if sample size allows its use. otherwise, account for the additional potential error in the results.
simple fact with normal scouting: ratings far exceed predictive ability of stats. far, far, far exceed. and, 100% accuracy? not even worth comparing to stats... a 100% accurate rating simply "is" the player's probability of success.
3) the guys you speak of i may keep as SP in the minors but i know they will never be SP in the majors... very rarely does a lagging 1/XX pitch ever develop when the other 2 are nearly topped-off. if it's a 1/80 in AAA give up on that pitch ever developing... but it's ok to start them in the minors.
if this is common, it's due to how you are drafting them. stop drafting a 3-pitch SP that has 1 extremely terrible pitch - i hesitate to say it... sometimes one pitch is a little lower, but what i am talking about is an extreme case. (4-pitches - 1 can be terrible, of course).
i really don't have the problem you are describing, so it must be a difference in how we draft. you are too often setting yourself up for a SP that cannot ever be an SP in the MLB (99% of the time).
a 50/80 SP can be a really good pitcher. maybe that's part of it. you need a different perspective on what a competent SP is compared to a batter. heck even 40's/80 can be good starters with the right combinations of abilities.
so, more often take the SP that is rated lower, but has 3 pitches... because that other SP is really just a RP in SP clothes at the time of the draft.
prospects getting blocked? shouldn't happen with pitchers, you can shuffle a lesser talent around.. who cares if a 20-30 out of 80 is playing in the wrong minor league tier. it is a big deal for a well-rated prospect you actually care about.
if you somehow have 2 position players developing in parrallel, split time at their position, use a 2nd position or DH to get extra time.. this will bge nothing but a boon later on by having additional positions with experience.
i'm pretty sure # of games played isn't supremely important to development... e.g. 50% might be enough in addition to remaining on the active roster (ie injuries/unemployment hurt development of course). you may not even have to do all that extra stuff to get them playing time, but do it just in case
4) the only thing a RP gets when changed from an SP is a slight boost to Stuff, if i recall. check manual for that.
if a younger pitcher loses velocity, i'd assume it's just a random occurence... you see it continue to dip, then i'd be worried. i don't see pitchers in their mid-20's lose velocity often... so, most likely just a random talent change.
For an older pitcher, i'd be a bit more concerned... you'll know shortly if he is losing his arm. over the course of a year he will have mutliple drops in velocity. if you see that happening, get rid of them ASAP and no questions asked about what you get in return. If it drops once in 12 months, it's a red flag and i'd try to get rid of him soon, but he might hang on for a while, too.
a couple examples:
so, if i see a 35-year old drop from 95-97 to 93-95 (2 drops)... i'm looking to get rid of him before his power-pitching repertoire turns to total crap. even one drop at that age is a bit scary... is it TCR or a sign of things to come? (talent change randomness setting - TCR) the younger they are, the more willing i am to wait and see.... maybe if this guy was 31-32 instead of 35, i'd strongly consider waiting and seeing.
if i see a 25-year old drop from 94-96 to 93-95 i'm not too concerned at that age.. it's most likely just TCR rearing its ugly head.
if it's a junk ball pitcher, how fast they throw becomes less important to their results. But, even a knuckleballer needs a fastball of some sort...
5) g/f % - affects hr i bet... probably more important to have a good infield defense for a groundball tendency compared to benefit of good OF and flyball tendency. you won't find a black-and-white answer to this question.
the real rate that causes the most damage is line-drive rate. fb are easy outs, but also more likely a hr... gb require a decent defense to take advantage of ... etc etc.. there are alot of moving parts to this.
i care more about stuff(including pitch selection) movement and control than i do anything else... at best it's a good tie-breaker between 2 very similar choices.
6) babip - it will take 10 years (guesstimate) to know opposing batter's babip of a SP... whatever length required, 1 or 3 years doesn't come close to cutting it - even more so with a reliever. it's extremely volatile from year-to-year. it's unlikely that you will have enough data to accurately evaluate most pitchers in regard to BABIP for many pitchers.
From link below:
"● Players that don’t allow many balls in the air (higher GB% with lower FB% and LD%) generally have higher BABIPs and batting averages against, but allow fewer extra base hits."
This link has good information for 5 and 6 - can use terms from the article to google more information from there. you can see from the one bullet that i pasted... it is a double-edged sword... higher gb% is proably more consistent but won't peak as low as a FB% pitcher, nor as high.
GB%, LD%, FB% | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library