[Bub13]

Let's get it started...

THEM
...Seattle fired Joe Quinn, who won 105 games in 2035, but only 74 last year. He's replaced by Kevin Boggan, coming off two years in Mexico.
...Detroit fires manager Luis Rojas, replacing him with Italian Francesco Miani. Miani has no experience anywhere on the books. He must have incriminating photos somewhere.
...The Yankees fire Tony Diaz after two bad seasons; hire Miguel Rodriguez, who's spent two years as bench coach sitting right next to Diaz.
...Seattle fired Kevin Boggan, with his 0-0 record after three weeks on the job. Wth, Mariners. Maybe they'll go with no manager next year.
...Three teams were sold: Toronto, Brooklyn, and the White Sox. The Jays are now owned by Jody Patterson, a guy who wants EXTREME PROFIT! above all else, so I'm curious to see how soon they start selling off expensive parts. Brooklyn's new owner, Jordan Bratcher, becomes the only African-American owner in MLB. The Reinsdorf family sold the Sox to Andy Johnston, a meddling economizer who wants money, money, money. They were an awful team (66 wins) last year that made $16M, so my thoughts are with you, Sox fans.

US
In early November, I received a postcard from the Caymans from our owner, Alexis Pagan. "Congrats! I have given you a score of 857 for the past season!" Um, what? "I am delighted with your performance in accomplishing all your goals. Next year is new, however, so you must keep working hard! Here is what I want: a title by 2041. Good luck! And remember to submit all receipts, and keep to your $50 food and beverage per diem." On the less bizarre side, he also raised the team budget to $104M, suggesting I spend no more than 80 mill on players. I'm thinking about installing a wet bar in my office.

MLB announces the disabled list minimum stay is now 11 days, up from 7. Why.

Back to the budget...Last year's player salaries totaled 78 mill. The Pagan has decreed I spend no more than 80 mill for 2037. You would think then that I only have 2 mill to spend on new players, but I've got more movement in mind, and hope that I can come in around 75 mill or so by Opening Day, giving some flexibility for moves during the season. Let's start with the arbitration period and our upcoming free agents. The latter first: three relievers, Key, Lopez, and McAdam will go UFA without new deals. These three made 6.7 million last year, and re-signing all three would cost me over 8 mill. I decline on all three, and will not submit the ridiculous 13 mill qualifying offer. I might try to re-sign Key during free agency, as he was at least decent. Lopez was great, but will be injured until summer, and will be 32, so I might be able to lowball him during the season. I'm fine with losing all three.

Every other end-of-season reliever on my team needs an arbitration offer: Balderston, Bolin, Shewmake, and Yates. Balderston wants over 1 mill; no thanks. Bolin I offer 700k. Shewmake made 2.75 mill, and I offer 3.1. Yates made 3.75, and wants 4.5. I decline to offer him anything, and wish him well. My intention is to make Shewmake my new closer, and keep Bolin on the cheap. That's two pitchers, plus two more on the farm that are good enough for the majors (more on them later), making four relievers. I want to go to camp with nine or ten MLB-ready relief pitchers on the roster, so I've got to do some scouring and deciding over these next few months. And I want to spend less than the nearly 15 million I paid out to eight guys in a fairly mediocre crew last year. Way less. My owner is making me a cheapskate. Let's hope it doesn't come back to bite me.

Seven batters need offers. The only one I decline is backup catcher Willie Zamorano. I make offers to four players for under a million each: 3B Ryan Hebert, backup IF Ervin Miranda, and backup OFs Marc Ferenczi and Kelvin Moreno. Starting SS Jim Mullen gets an offer for 2.5 mill (up from minimum), and RF Chris Wiggins 2.75 mill (also up from minimum). You can see why I want to cut beaucoups salary from the bullpen.

As we begin the off-season, let's take a look at the team makup at present. Austin Collins will be back at catcher. I need a backup, and September call up Jim Yancy will get a shot. He doesn't hit, but is good defensively. There's little else in the system, so I'll be looking to see if any affordable guys, with good defense and at least passable offense, come up in free agency. The outfield is set, with McArthur, Drayton, and Wiggins locked in place. I'd like some better play from the reserves, and despite brining back last year's bench (Ferenczi and Moreno) for now, I'm open to more competition there. I've got a few guys in AAA/AA who could figure in camp, but no one who I'd be okay with should one of the starters get injured long-term. That is a concern.

The infield may get shuffled around. Dunklee is set at first, no question. Clarke put up good numbers, but I'd like better from someone making 12 mill (most on the team). Mullen got little attention all season, but put up 4.7 WAR, including 46 doubles (in a bad doubles park), and decent defense. Hebert, at third, had another high BA, and put up more WAR this year in 200 fewer AB (2.4 vs 1.3). Like Mullen, he played acceptable defense. The wrench in the system in 2035 #1 overall Adam Groff, who's ready for the big time, and can play third and short. His arm is good enough for both positions, and is better than Mullen's, but Mullen has the better range and DP capability. Hebert has the slightly better glove than Groff at third (15 to 14), but less arm and less range. He's also better than Groff at DP (15 to 11). And Hebert can play 2B, hmm... My current thinking is to set the field like this: 1B Dunklee, 2B Hebert, 3B Groff, SS Mullen. For the bench, Ervin Miranda is solid at the three skill IF positions, and I want to give prospect 2B Josh Robertson a chance as well. He's very similar to Hebert: high contact and gap, no power, suspect plate discipline. Good fielder around the infield too, but his arm is not quite up to my standards for third or short. That looks like Clarke is out. The fans won't like it, but my budget will, especially as he jumps up to 22 mill for 2038 and 2039.

Finally, at DH, Erik Hodge was adequate last year, with 23 HR and a slash of .282/.306/.484 in 555 PA. But I like late season call up Nate Hullinger (6 HR in 42 PA). His contact and gap are slightly worse than Hodge's, but his power is much better. Discipline and avoid K's are a wash. Neither is great shakes with the glove, but Hullinger is noticeably better. Both are limited to DH or 1B. Both are left-handed, but Hullinger has much better L/R split ratings. Hodge is 25 (Hullinger 26), and cheap, so I think he'll be attractive trade bait.

Pitching. Let's start with the pen, adding to what's been written above. Shewmake will be back, and will make a lights-out closer, I think. Bolin is cheap, and coming back. On the farm, Evan Larkins pitched well in AAA, but has done poorly for us in his two shots in '35 and '36. He'll get one more chance. Bryan Hardin has been a AAA starter, and MLB reliever in two short stints with Colorado. He's got ratings and pitches enough to start, but no stamina. I think he'll be a passable middle reliever and emergency starter. From the earlier paragraph, Balderston, Key, McAdam, and Yates are gone. Vicente Ixcoy, who my scouts love, but who became a BP-tossing, flu-ridden, brawl-starting disaster by the end of the season, will also not be back. There are four other guys in the system--Travis Kelley, Pat Stanley, Steve Cenci, and Salvador de la Cruz--who are marginal big leaguers at this point, and will need some off-season growth to figure any larger in our future plans. This is clearly our area of biggest need, and I may take the MLB route and just bring in a ton of barely-good-enough guys and rotate them in and out of the pen during the season. Can we win with a star closer and a bunch of nobodies? Ugh.

The rotation is a little more settled, but still needs attention. Ken Clark established himself as our #1, having a season that may merit some Cy Young attention. Steve Brock was a good #2, and will be back. Bobby Little is our only lefty, and still has some growth left according to my scouts. He's just 24, and had enough good outings last year to make me pencil him into next year's rotation already. Bobby Anderson pitched well, but got hurt for the second straight season, making only 17 starts. His stuff is not overwhelming (5.2 K/9), and none of his ratings impress. He made 8.5 mill last year, which will shoot up to 13.3 next year. Like 2B Josh Clarke, I'd like more production out of someone making over 10 mill, so he's a trade candidate. Rich Rivera is an original Islander, missed half the season (16 starts), and didn't produce much when he did start (4.11 ERA, 85 IP, 60 BB, -0.1 WAR). His arbitration estimate is 4.6 mill, so he won't be back. Jimmy Wunderlich has been a disappointment: two seasons with an ERA over 5, 424 hits in 357 IP, and a K/BB ratio less than two. And he's a groundballer who gave up 30 HR last year. His salary will jump from 5.5 to 6.5 mill next year. He's got quality ratings, however, and my scouts want me to keep him. Despite the evidence, I'm inclined to keep him for now. Finally, there's Angelo Partida. Good ratings, high velo (tops out at 100), keeps the ball down. But he missed a month in 2035 after we traded for him, and made only 6 starts last year between MLB and AAA. It's way too early to give up on him, but if he can't stay healthy, he won't stay in Hawaii. So we're looking at Clark, Brock, Little, Wunderlich, and Partida as the rotation at present, and looking to trade Anderson.

To summarize, my early thinking for our off-season looks like this:
...acquire a backup defensive catcher
...trade 2B Phil Clarke for pitching
...trade SP Bobby Anderson for ???
...bring in 4-6 bullpen arms to compete in camp
...keep player budget to under 80 million

Simple, right?