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Old 03-15-2003, 06:58 PM   #2
Steve Kuffrey
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Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised
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OOTP5 Financial FAQ Part 2b Team Finances Year By Year-asamford

SP J. Crane - "let me hear your offer" - Crane is only 25 and is one of the top rated SP's in the league. Although there aren't any pitchers his age with the same ratings, older pitchers with similar ratings are making between $13-17 million so we'll probably have to figure at least $15 million to resign Crane. Seeing as how pitchers of his stature aren't that easy to come by, we should probably plan on resigning Crane.

SP B. Kosecki - "I want 4,200,000 for 3 years" - Kosecki is actually asking for less than what he is currently making, but at 34 with average ratings, he would be easily replaceable with either an average or better pitching prospect or a cheaper alternative on the free agent market.

UT W. Lopez - "I want $700,000 for 2 years" - Lopez isn't asking for much, less than what he currently makes, and he's versatile playing all infield positions. A good utility guy. However, if you have even a Fair Talent infielder in the minors with even as low as 3's for ratings, they wouldn't be that much less productive than Lopez, and would only cost 300k.

OF S. Rodriguez - "I want $12,500,000 for 5 years" - Rodriguez is a stud power hitter in his prime and is looking for his big payday. Ideally, a player we'd like to keep, but if we sign both Crane and Rodriguez, we'd be handcuffing ourselves financially for the next season and possibly beyond. If we could sign 2 or 3 quality players in free agency for the same amount it would take to resign Rodriguez, that might be the better way to go. However, if the rest of the team seems solid and Rodriguez is the difference between a championship and 2nd place, then it might be worth the risk. Probably a decision that will have to be made later on in the season.

Now, let's take a look at the four players eligible for arbitration.

MR K. Murphy - Murphy has been a solid young reliever and when we look at what relievers rated similar to him have been awarded in arbitration it ranges from 900k to 1.8M. Since this is Murphy's first year eligible for arbitration, his salary will probably be toward the lower end of the spectrum, likely no more than a million. Unless we're just loaded with good relief prospects ready to step up to the majors, Murphy would be a bargain to retain since veteran MR's with his ratings will command 2-3M per year.

1B J. Agua - Agua is entering his 3rd year of arbitration and if his ratings were to stay the same, would be awarded a contract worth slightly more than his current amount ($4,750,000). Probably somewhere around 5.25-5.5M. Since Agua is only one year away from free agency, it might be interesting to see if we can go ahead and sign him long term. "Let me hear your offer". Well, looking at Agua's age and ratings it would probably take at least $7M to sign him and he would probably accept no more than 3 years. If we let him go to arbitration, we get him at a discount for one more season, and if his ratings don't go up we can sign him to that same $7-8M extension after next season and by that point he's more likely to accept a longer-term contract as well.

OF J. Lewis - Lewis is a young power hitter who still has room to develop higher ratings. Again, we'll look at what players similar to Lewis have been awarded in years past and figure he'll be on the lower end of the spectrum since it's his first year eligible. For now, we'll figure Lewis will cost us about 1.8M next year. However, we need to keep an eye on his ratings as the season progresses, if they go up, so will his potential salary.

OF R. Mills - Mills is an average talent outfielder who has been a valuable backup at all 3 positions. It is beneficial to develop talents such as Mills so that as they mature, they can be quality bench players making the minimum salary. In his first year of arbitration, Mills was awarded a small raise over the minimum, and the same should be expected this season. At 500k, Mills was still an ok value, but since that will most likely be bumped to around 700-800k next season, we'd be better off cutting him loose and replacing him with another average talent outfielder from the minor leagues.

Now that we have a general idea of who we want to keep, and how much it will approximately cost balanced against how much we have to spend, it's time to decide what to do with the players we don't want to keep, or can't afford to keep. Ask yourself a couple of questions. Are they critical to our success in meeting our goals set for the current season? If so, we should probably just ride out the contract and accept the fact that we'll lose them at the end of the year, getting nothing in return. Are we no better or worse with them than without them, or do we already have someone on the bench or in the minors ready to replace them? Then maybe it's time to look at trying to trade the player. Even if all we can get is a fair-to-average prospect, those are the kind of players that develop into adequate backups making the 300k minimum, and the money we save by not paying backups millions of dollars can go towards the marquee contracts. So if it looks like all the AI will give us for our 34 year old average SP is a fair talent middle infielder in AA, that might be a good deal for us to make.

But, it's only May. No need to rush to any decisions just yet. There are some instances, however, where it would be advantageous to go ahead and negotiate an extension right away.

- If your team currently has a winning record and the player you want to resign has a strong desire to play for a winner, you might want to go ahead and sign him. Should your team falter and have a losing record later on, the player may not want to resign.

- If a player is eligible for free agency (not arbitration) but is still young enough (generally 25 or under) that further development during the season is possible. If the ratings go up, so will the demands.

Otherwise, it's generally best to do your negotiating later on in the year, if not at the very end of the year. The AI will be done signing extensions, and you can se exactly what talent will be available in next year's free agent market. Also, players are more likely to make specific demands rather than just asking to "hear your offer". Additionally, if your team makes the playoffs or wins the championship, occasionally a player will lower his demands in order to remain a part of your winning organization. Plus, you'll have another season's full performance to help you evaluate whether or not the player is meeting your expectations. Furthermore, you'll know exactly how much money you made or lost this season, and will be able to more accurately predict next year's revenues. Finally, you'll have a better idea which youngsters in your minor league system will be ready to "make the jump" offering quality at a budget price.

So, as of right now, we've estimated the four players going to arbitration will cost us around $9 million next season, but we'll probably let Mills go, bringing the total to approx 8.2M, placing our estimated 2004 payroll at 50.3M. If we were to sign both Crane and Rodriguez to extensions, our payroll for next season would soar to 77M, which would leave us with no money to fill out the roster. However, if we do well this season and bring in additional playoff revenues and draw more fan interest, it might just be possible. If we absolutely don't want to lose either of our star players due for free agency, but don't want to handcuff ourselves financially, we might want to look at trading a couple of players already signed to long-term contracts to free up some extra cash to do this.

Although we've decided that Kosecki, Lopez, and Mills will be expendable at the end of the season, their worth on the trade market would be minimal. However, if we have players in the minors who are ready to step up and replace any or all of them, we should try and at least move them for something, so we don't end up losing them at the end of the year and get nothing in return. But, we've got a plan, and it's only May.


JUNE
OOTP5 allows the amateur draft to be held in June now, instead of January (at your option). I prefer the new June draft as it helps break up the monotony of simming through a season, plus with the added players, it might make other prospects in your system available in a possible trade. I also like not having as much work to do in the offseason to get the next season started, and never liked the shifting gears of playing the free agent market then going straight into the ammy draft. Plus, it gives us something evaluate and think about in June, since otherwise all we have to do is work on possible trades.

JULY
Trade deadline coming up at the end of the month. Time to move any players that we have no use for who we'll lose at the end of the season. Time to either acquire the players we need for a run at the pennant, or trade vets to a contender for prospects. Also, keep in mind that any trades that are made that involve players under contract will have to accounted for in all of the budget notes we made in May.

continued next post
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