[Orcin]

Preliminary 2015 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart

The road map for next season’s roster follows. This will be split into multiple long and ridiculously-detailed posts. (Hey, I have been away for six years, so please cut me some slack if I write too much on my first day back.) More detail will be devoted to the pitching staff, because it is my biggest concern.

Starting Pitchers

The current 40-man roster pitchers (age/throws/current rating) with 2014 stats and contract status:
• Bill Robertson (37/R/4*) 170 IP, 10-9, 2.86 ERA, free agent
• Edgardo Ordonez (29/L/4*) 238 IP, 18-11, 3.97 ERA, $14M (thru 2018)
• Wallace Trauttmann (28/R/2*) 204 IP, 12-13, 4.32 ERA, free agent
• Juan Rodriguez (29/L/2*) 150 IP, 8-10, 4.01 ERA, free agent
• Will Spencer (29/R/2*) 179 IP, 9-9, 5.18 ERA, arbitration ($800K)
• Connor Legh (32/R/2*) 26 IP due to shoulder injury, free agent
• Marcos Maestas (24/R/2*) 74 IP, 3-8, 3.63 ERA, auto renewal

The staff at Lexington (AAA) includes these pitchers not on the 40-man roster:
• Juan Jose Rodgers (26/R/2*) 14-6, 3.35 ERA at AAA, free agent
• Josh MacDonald (25/R/1*) 8-11, 4.02 ERA at AAA, auto renewal, out of options
• Cristobal Tapia (27/R/1*) 7-6, 4.02 ERA at AAA, free agent

Robertson did a great job for the Colonels last year and he is willing to negotiate on a new contract. However, he wants multiple years. I would rather give those innings to developing pitchers or cheaper free agents on 1-year deals. I won’t offer Robertson a contract, even though he is our second-most popular player.

Ordonez is the #1 starter, believe it or not. He is paid like a #1 starter and we need him to pitch like a #1 starter. I would like to see his ERA come down about half a run.

Trauttmann will accept a 3-year contract at $6M/year. I am considering a counter-offer. Trauttmann was 15-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 2008. He battled injuries for the next 3 years before rebounding to 14-10, 3.28 in 2012. Then, he inexplicably declined to a combined 21-28 with a 4.29 ERA over the past two seasons. At age 28, he might still turn around with proper coaching and a good defense behind him, both of which I intend to provide.

Juan Rodriguez will accept a 3-year deal for $2M/year. He is the only other lefty so I need to sign him unless there is a cheaper and/or better alternative on the free agent market. Former Louisville star pitcher Robert Westaway is available and left-handed, but he is 39 and still recovering from a torn rotator cuff. He won’t be cheap either.

Maestas, Rodgers, and Spencer are all young enough to improve, and I need the depth.
I really liked Maestas (2008 #1) and Rodgers (2006 #1) when I drafted them, and I owe them a chance. I want to give Spencer a fair shot even though his control is scary bad.

Bullpen

Last year’s unit included:
• David Hanna (35/R/5*) 71 IP, 6-7, 2.02 ERA, 40 SV, free agent
• Ken Cushley (36/R/4*) 47 IP, 3-2, 2.85 ERA, free agent
• Jorge Merced (29/R/4.5*) 85 IP, 6-4, 3.18 ERA, $3M (thru 2017)
• A bunch of no-name kids and veterans that you may never hear from again

Merced is the new closer unless I can find a better affordable alternative. There is a lot of work to do in the bullpen because I refuse to spend $20M on two aging relievers. I am not a big fan of relief pitchers on the other side of 35 with huge salaries. Thus I won’t be offering a contract to Hanna and Cushley. This will hurt fan interest (again) because Hanna is our most popular player.

In case you are curious, former Louisville relievers Bruce “Fat Cat” Brooks, Edgardo Garza, and Francisco Rodriguez are all closers for other CBA teams. I don’t want to bash my predecessor, but couldn’t you have kept those three guys instead of getting Hanna and Cushley? The guys I left were all younger and their combined salaries were about equal to the other two. At least Merced is still around.

Overall Pitching Summary

This staff deserves its average rating from last year, and that is before we let several of the best pitchers leave in free agency. There’s a lot of work to do here, especially in the bullpen. I can put together a decent rotation if I sign Trauttmann and Rodriguez.

Catcher

Porter traded young 3B Peter Clifton to Baltimore for catcher Tsutomu Kubo last July. He was not happy with veteran Duncan Bland (.224/.280/.344) at the plate, and Kubo certainly hit better (.278/.336/.389). The problem is that Kubo fails to consistently make routine defensive plays and his arm is a joke (16.5% caught stealing rate).

Kubo is arbitration eligible ($2.4M estimate) and Porter offered him a 1-year contract at $2.8 million (still pending). Veteran Juan Alejandrez is the third catcher. I could go with a semi-platoon of the 34-year-old Bland and 35-year-old Alejandrez behind the plate, which would be a huge upgrade defensively. Kubo may have value on the trade market and I could use the budget room. Bland makes a lot of money, and has no trade value, so I might as well benefit from his leadership and defense.

To be continued…