Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave
It depends I can look at video of the players' home runs. Balls hit farther are hit harder, that's simple physics. If one guy is hitting pop ups that fall an inch beyond a short fence in a hitter friend stadium and the other guy is hitting moonshots that would go out of any park, both easily visible to the naked eye, I'll say the latter player is more likely to hit home runs at a higher rate in the future all other variables constant. I really don't need to know the average exit velocities. Granted this is an extreme comparison. I'll grant that knowing the average exit velocity might help when comparing two very similar players, but context is everything. I'd also look at his K rate and generally how often he swings and misses. You can't hit a home run if you can't hit the ball.
In the case of veteran players with a big sample size, average exit velocity is meaningless. You are what your record says you are.
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Just to confirm, you have enough time in your life to watch every batted ball instance for every player that ever existed? Otherwise, what is your basis for making these determinations other than anecdotal situations? You do realize that it's both frequency and magnitude right? I'd imagine not everyone has time to watch video of every homerun hit by every hitter ever, and that's disregarding the minor detail that this isn't even a possibility in OOTP, the game we're here to discuss. But lets continue with your example. How about players who hit a rocket at an outfielder on the warning track an unusually frequent number of times - your methodology would completely ignore this since you're only watching videos of home runs, right? It would simply be an 'out' and wouldn't give you the insight that some of those rockets can and will end up being home runs in the future.