Quote:
Originally Posted by Alessandro
So, alright, if a team wins some games in a row, one day they'll lose. If they lose some games in a row, one day they'll win. Did we need Vic Ferrari to state this?
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If your team is winning games and has a high PDO, the wins are more luck than good play.
If your team is winning games with low PDO, you're getting unlucky and still winning, which is always a good sign.
If your PDO is around 1.000, then your wins and losses are more a matter of possession than luck.
Case in point -
Toronto Maple Leafs - They had an insane PDO in 2013, and
horrible possession numbers: The Leafs posted the worst CF percentage (44.1 percent) and FF percentage (44.0 percent) during five-on-five play this past season.
In fact, the Leafs were in the bottom six in the league in CF percentage in almost every other situation including power play (25th), penalty kill (26th), five-on-five in close games (29th), five-on-five when leading (28th) and five-on-five when trailing (25th).
Why possesion matters:
Chris Boyle of
Habs Eyes on the Prize charted every team's fenwick close since 2007-2008. The rings of the graph represent each round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The further the logo is away from the ring represents the distance from a playoff berth. He also charted the percentage from .400 to .600. The further away from the .400 represents a stronger possession team. The ultimate on this index would be the 2008 Red Wings with a score of 59.39 located on the top portion of the Stanley Cup in the +.550 section. The 2008 Thrashers scrape the bottom of this index with a 41.23 and 28th position during the same season.