[Bub13]

SPRING TRAINING RECAP AND SEASON PREVIEW

We finished March 16-14, which isn't so bad except that we dropped seven of our last nine. Our biggest problem--and not just over those last nine games, tbh--was hitting. Nobody hit .300, with six opening day regulars batting below .250. We also averaged a HR every other game; that just will not cut it in today's MLB. Pitching was stout, which makes me feel a bit better. Newbie Joe Koval impressed early but slumped late, while other-newbie Dennis Perry was wicked all of spring training. The bullpen was quite good, although I was disappointed that a couple guys did not make most of their second ST opportunities (the Bens, Germann and Willard).

So while I'm not worried (we went 15-15 last spring training, and I'm pretty sure the regular season turned out okay), I am a tad concerned. Can we start hitting? Do I have too many rookies? Will we hit any home runs? Only one way to find out. Without further ado, then, here are your 2047 Hawaii Islanders:

Batters:
(position, player name and info, 2046 stats; starters in bold)

C Rob Rich, 26 LH, $4.4M thru '51, .306/.343/.393 1.8 WAR. Batted .300, but his power numbers and WAR dropped noticeably. Solid fielder, good with the pitching staff too. My owner always wants me to upgrade here, but Rich is affordable and hits well enough to more than earn his keep. Doesn't hit lefties, so platoons with...

C Dave McCollum, 26 RH, 750K thru '47 (arb), .263/.310/.438 1.1 WAR. Team captain, and the starter against LHP. Just so-so in the field, but hit with more power than Rich, and was generally better than his .263 average says. Only walked 8 times in 224 AB however. I keep getting trade offers for him, which must mean something.

1B Adam Groff, 33 LH, $37.5M thru '53, .361/.429/.630 36 HR 112 RBI 8.4 WAR, AL MVP and batting champ. Moving across the infield for '47, thanks largely to his increasing immobility at third. Has just 2 career starts at first, but played well in the spring. Career leader in most every Islander offensive stat, and should reach 2000 career hits this year.

DH/1B Jonathan Klump, 26 LH, $825K thru '47 (arb), .252/.320/.420 13 HR 0.3 WAR. Slumped badly from his .306/26/90 line in '45; getting injured for a couple months didn't help. Is okay in the field, but will only get emergency starts at first this year. Not terrible against lefties, but will probably get platooned with the right-handed Padilla. Extremely popular locally.

2B Manny Rangel, 26 RH, $900K thru '47 (arb), .279/.352/.422 1.7 WAR in 244 AB. Made 57 starts last year thanks to injuries to Simmons and Stoneback, and looked pretty good. So here he is, having 2B handed to him. Doesn't have great ratings in any single offensive category, but is good across the board. Very solid defensively, with the usual weak arm that makes a second baseman.

IF John Canning, 30 RH, $1.21M thru '48, .302/.323/.490 0.4 WAR in 96 AB. I let him go UFA after last season, then took a look at all the backup-type middle infielders who could play all three 'skill' positions and also hit at least a little. He was the only candidate. Best attributes are a rocket arm, a good eye, and a great attitude.

3B/1B/DH Dante Padilla, 23 RH, $500K thru '47, .400 4 HR 8 RBI in 30 AB (.330 20 HR 58 RBI in 273 AAA at bats). Still developing, and my scouts say his power stroke looks elite. Won't strike out, has a good eye, and should develop into a .270+ hitter. Chief drawback is a tin glove, but otherwise he's decent in the field. He'll get looks at DH against LHP, and spell Simmons at third and Groff at first.

3B J.J. Simmons, 24 RH, $8.0M thru '56, .318/.401/.417 72 RBI 27 SB 29/70 K/BB ratio. The '44 ROY and AL batting champ, he's settled into a .310ish hitter these last two seasons. Also has zero HR over that time. Great fielder, excellent on the bases, and solid contact and bat control. Should be an excellent leadoff hitter, but averages about 50 points lower there than he does when batting 7th or 8th.

SS Rich Stoneback, 29 RH, $16.5M thru '55, .294/.372/.471 19 HR 77 RBI 4.8 WAR, Gold Glove. Came back to earth from his 42 HR and 8.7 WAR '45 season. Since he seems to turn it on every other year, I expect he'll be fine again this season. Injuries limited him to 113 starts; we'll need him to stay healthy, for sure.

LF Kenny Welch, 24 RH, $500K thru '47, .333 2 HR in 45 AB (.322 23 HR 84 RBI at AAA). Will likely platoon with Daley, and may get moved to RF occasionally thanks to his booming arm. Not a runner, on the bases and in the field. Has hit a lot of HR in AAA for two seasons, and needs to do the same for us this year. I want to see at least 20 dingers from Welch. Good L/R splits, so should be able to handle full-time duty too.

OF Cameron Daley, 23 RH, $500K thru '47, .345 14 HR 58 RBI 23 SB in AAA (2-for-5 with Hawaii in September). Still growing, and could easily start given his current ratings. Hits for contact and gap power, could develop 15-20 HR power, doesn't strike out, and can run. Range and arm just okay, but glove is excellent.

CF Jim Klein, 27 RH, $4.2M thru '51, .312/.359/.415 70 RBI 24 SB 3.1 WAR. Mr. Dependable, just shows up and goes to work. Had 205 hits last year, made 156 starts. Doesn't hit for power (tho did hit 8 HR), but is good for 40 doubles and enough walks to be our leadoff guy. Not a gold glove candidate, but range and arm are more than adequate.

OF/P Phil Lasky, 25 LH, $500K thru '47, .307 9 HR and 27 GS 14-5 W-L 147 IP 4.66 ERA in AAA. Solid-looking two-way guy, whom I've decided to put in the OF while letting him get some mop up duty in the bullpen. He wants to be in the starting rotation, but I think he's just a shade below what I want there; is a solid fielder, and his bat makes him a near-starter in the field. Is good enough--but not excellent--so that I'm still not quite sure where he'll wind up eventually.

RF Joseph Hart, 27 LH, $7.5M thru '47, .255/.351/.433 17 HR 1.9 WAR. Offensive numbers have dropped over the last two seasons. Almost got traded this winter, but his defense and OBP kept him around. Might get platooned a bit against LHP, especially if his hitting doesn't pick up early on. Capable of 20+ HR power, but hasn't delivered that since '44.

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Pitchers:

SP Eric Jones, 30 LH, $11.0M thru '48, 19-3 3.28 225 IP 130 K 4.2 WAR. Every year I get on his case because on paper he doesn't look like much: a low-stuff junkballer who fans just 5 per 9 IP and struggles some nearly every other year (uh oh). But he keeps showing up and doing his job, and really saved our rotation last year. Needs to keep the ball down to be successful, and gave up just 16 HR in '46. Won't ever show up on any "best of" lists, but I have a feeling I'll miss his quiet efficiency when he's gone. Will be the opening day starter, as a reward for last season.

SP Ryan Ratliff, 26 RH, $2.31M thru '47 (arb), 14-5 3.52 179 IP 169 K 2.9 WAR. Went from a bottom-end starter to our clear #2 guy by the end of the season. Listed as a power pitcher, but doesn't overwhelm, fanning just 8.5 per 9. Has become quite popular locally, and with a good '47 will earn a nice payday.

SP Joe Koval, 30 RH, $13.8M thru '49, 11-6 3.78 157 IP 141 K 4.5 WAR (with BOS). Traded a couple of good young hitters for him, in an effort to rebuild our rotation. Has been healthy for the most part, but did miss a few weeks last year. Groundballer, with four sharp pitches and excellent control. I hope all that, plus our quality infield, will equal some good numbers for him. It better.

SP Dennis Perry, 25 RH, $500K thru '47 (arb), 20 GP 4.13 28 IP 31 K (with NYM). Off-season acquisition, getting his first look as a big league starter. Struggled with control during his brief 20-inning debut with the Mets, but should be better than his 20 walks showed. Keeps the ball down in the dirt, which I love. He's unhappy right now, for some reason; but he's Canadian, so I'm not worried about him.

SP Shamar Jackson, 24 RH, $500K thru '47, 11 GS 6-3 5.23 74 IP 67 K (9-4 in 19 GS 3.48 2.6 WAR in AAA). Was on-again off-again in camp--just like he was during his late-season call up last year. Knuckleballer; if he gets a handle on his control, should easily hold onto the #5 slot. Has two other good pitches, so he's got some adaptability.

CL Dan Brown, 26 RH, $8.4M thru '47, 71 GP 39 SV 75 IP 87 K -0.2 WAR. The 2045 Hoyt Wilhelm trophy winner struggled at times last year, but gets one more season to prove that award was no fluke. Has all the hallmarks of a proper closer, and keeps the ball down. Still, he was flaky enough last year to yield 16 HR, which is just not good. He'll get pushed by our two new acquisitions, as well as the fact that his high salary demands don't sit all that well with me.

SU Ramon Sanabria, 31 RH, $5.0M thru '49, 59 GP 2.67 57 IP 59 K 1.0 WAR (with PHI). The 2040 AL Wilhelm winner with Detroit, he's spent the last two seasons in the NL. Looks very similar to Brown, and will get a quick bump up to closer if Danny Boy falters. Plus, he's signed at a good value for the next three seasons.

SU Rick Ramirez, 27 RH, $3.4M thru '47 (arb), 51 GP 4.37 70 IP 87 K 1.1 WAR. This guy has "premier closer" written all over him, and yet he can't hold down the job. Had 20 saves in '45, starting the year as closer, but blew up enough to lose the job to Brown. Struggled during his month or so in the spot last year, too. He's up for arbitration again this fall, so this will be a big year for him, as regards his future with Hawaii.

MR Nick Kramer, 24 RH, $500K thru '47, 48 GP 9 SV 2.05 53 IP 64 K in AAA (9.00 ERA in 3 IP with Hawaii). Was good during a brief call-up in '45, and was terrible last year. Third time lucky? Excellent fastball, and should be a regular for years; but needs to not walk 6 in 3 IP like he did last season.

MR Nate Moore, 24 LH, $500K thru '47 (arb), 30 GP 6.03 34 IP 31 K (3.57 6 SV in 15 GP at AAA). Like Kramer, really struggled with control during his time in Hawaii last year (plus gave up 6 HR). Had a 30-to-4 K/BB ratio in 30 IP for us in '45; that's the Nate Moore I want to see. Well, duh.

MR Pat Stanley, 33 LH, $3.1M thru '47, 43 GP 4.78 87 IP 83 K 1.1 WAR. Blossomed into a stud MR for a few years, then regressed hard last season. Regularly pitches 90-100 IP every year too. Extreme groundballer, but gave up 11 HR last year, contributing to his struggles. Frankly, is looking at his last season in an Islander uniform, unless he does something special.

LR Dave Henderson, 39 RH, $3.35M thru '47, 2 starts, 13 IP 17 K (with PHI). Got injured early, missed almost the entire season last year. For now, will get the long inning mop up duty from the pen, but will get pushed into the rotation if anyone struggles or gets hurt. Four-time Cy Young winner, is nowhere near that guy anymore; but still looks competent.

Also: Phil Lasky: backup OF will get some spot MR/LR duty as needed.

Injured list: 2B J.R. Thompson (AAA filler, out for a month); MR/SU Justin Crowley (free agent from OAK; excellent former closer who had a bad '46; fans 11-12 per 9 IP; out for 2-3 months sadly)

Next men up: SP Shaun Gates and Ben Germann; RP Ben Willard, Walt Thompson, and Jose Esquivel; 2B Jorge Canales; OF Josh Frederick and Jerry Cappuccilli

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Around the league, the Mets, Reds, and Royals won 21 games; Oakland brought up the rear with just 10 wins. Padres 3B Greg Arcand drove in 26 runs, nearly matching the 36 he had all of last season. Our own RP Rick Ramirez led everyone with 33 K, and Cincy superstar Jose Tavares looks primed for another big year after batting .400 with 7 HR. On the bad news front, Milwaukee and Cincy--both looking to repeat their division titles from last year--each lost their ace starter for the season (Robbie Collier and Juan Valdez, respectively. Plus, Milwaukee #2 Jay Russo is also done for the year.). Detroit's top two relievers are done for 2047, and Brooklyn has five MLB-quality pitchers out for between five weeks and eight months.

MLB has called the Chicago Cubs the "off-season winners" after they added 10.6 WAR to their roster. Adding an SP, 3B, CF, and two quality RP, while losing just SP John Baldwin looks good to me too. Houston is next at +8.7 WAR, probably for the first time ever. They lost no one of significance, and added a 1B (our own Sen Masuda), backup C, and four good pitchers. Nice haul. At the opposite end, the Mets lost 10.8 WAR, and that includes adding nearly 8 WAR of new blood. They said goodbye to their C, 2B, 3B, LF, 2 SP, and a host of backups. We ranked 29th, dropping 5.2 WAR. Although I'd argue that we'll add more than that in rookie talent. Take that, MLB.

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BNN season predictions are out, and I think they're just nuts. We're picked to win 109 games, for one. I just do not see that. They say we'll have the best offense (although 17th-ranked HR, which I predict too), and the best pitching--by far--in the AL. In fact, they say our pitching could be top five in MLB, which is unheard of for an AL team. Do I think we'll have a top-flight staff, if we stay healthy? Yes. Will we be one of the best in baseball? Probably not. But I'll take #1 in the AL, any day. BNN picks Groff and Stoneback to have big seasons, but didn't feature anyone else, batter or pitcher, so all the others are a mystery.

Elsewhere, division winners look to be: AL, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Hawaii. NL are Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles. LA's offense looks to be greatly helped by their two solid free agent additions, 1B Vinny Vargas and 2B Juan Rodriquez. Several long-term losers look to have seasons that could see them playing into October: Washington, San Francisco, Miami, and Toronto. Milwaukee, Seattle, and Cincy look to drop at least ten games off of last year's records, while Montreal, Boston, and Austin are picked to be the bottom of the barrel. And take heart, Cubs fans: your lovable losers are picked to be the cream of the NL Central, although still lagging behind the elite Phillies and Dodgers. Based on predicted records, in fact, the League Championships figure to be KC vs HAW and PHI vs LAD. Wouldn't shock me in the least. As long as we don't face Detroit.

One more thing: prospect system rankings. The White Sox take the top spot, and have the unusual honor of also having the top three prospects in the game. Two are excellent-looking starting pitchers (Burton Dick and Ben O'Neal) and the other is OF Andy Barenberg. Next in line are Brooklyn, the Cubs, Minnesota, Texas, and then us in sixth place. Four of our top nine will start in the bigs (and three others are in AAA), so we may not be in the top ten for much longer. The one new addition to the list--at #3--is 16-year-old 1B Jules Medici, an Italian ranked #70 overall. He's got lots of time for his potential to come back to earth, but right now he's got hitting ceilings to die for.

Next up: PLAY BALL!