Quote:
Originally Posted by max venerabel
I suppose the wide variance in outcomes for same-card players also made me wonder about this. If you've got 20 Mike Trout '18s in a league, some will hit .210, some will hit .290 in any given year. That's a ~30% difference in outcomes, based on over 600 plate appearances. How likely is that, statistically, if we were to assume a fully neutral environment?
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The point I think your missing is that higher level competition has only one effect = down. These "superstars" in a normal a competitive environment will perform worse in PT. That much is a fact.
Combine that with a bad luck run and you have a slump that seems unlikely.