[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by max venerabel

I suppose the wide variance in outcomes for same-card players also made me wonder about this. If you've got 20 Mike Trout '18s in a league, some will hit .210, some will hit .290 in any given year. That's a ~30% difference in outcomes, based on over 600 plate appearances. How likely is that, statistically, if we were to assume a fully neutral environment? I honestly don't know how to do those calculations, so please if anyone does feel free to make me look like an idiot here...

Of course environments aren't fully neutral, so while some of that varience might be luck, some might be park factors or differing divisional competition in an unbalanced schedule... but seems like the swings are very wide to me, considering that parks are capped at 10% modification, and only effect you for half your games. Its harder to quantify competition variance -- though maybe someone has a good model for that.

Is there a general "slump" mechanic in OOTP, that (if not yearly) generates shorter periods of variable productivity?

There is no slump mechanic. Every single event involving a player uses just the players ratings to determine the outcome. There is no hidden slump or hot streak feature.