Quote:
Originally Posted by bailey
Week to week changes in player stats are just noise. Like trying to day trade stocks. Or buying some hot growth stock and wondering why the price goes down after you buy it.
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Don't really agree with this. Players are moving +/- ten points or more, that's more significant than "noise".
There are ways to predict these short term movements as well. Really we are just limited by the amount of time we want to invest.
for contact rating obviously BABIP involves a huge amount of luck, but there are still some good indicators, mainly line drive%, pull% and IFFB%
for power there's StatCast data and park factors to disentangle but it can be done with some effort
for strikeouts and walks there are plate discipline statistics which are more predictive from small samples (o-Swing%, etc.)
with enough time on your hands and knowledge of baseball stats you could do quite well just flipping the short term changes.
If someone would pay me full time to do this I would be happy to prove it
