MINNESOTA TWINS
Projected: 93-67
Last Season: 74-86, T-4th, 18 GB
Payroll: $205MM (7th)
Major Additions: RF Nomar Mazara, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Austin Barnes, SP Keith Rodriguez
Major Losses: RPs Andrew Miller, Keone Kela
Top Players: RF Nomar Mazara, 1B Freddie Freeman, 1B/DH Seth Beer
With two marquee signings, the Twins have transformed themselves from afterthoughts to possible title contenders. Pulling Mazara and Freeman away (from NL South rivals Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively) gives Minnesota two household names to plug into the lineup every single day. Mazara is probably the better player at this stage; he's blossomed massively in this save, to the point where it's positively affected my opinion of him IRL. Minnesota's supporting cast was already in place (Beer, 3B Xander Bogaerts, SS Luis Tuero), and now the centerpieces are there too.
INDIANAPOLIS ROUNDERS
Projected: 88-72
Last Season: 74-86, T-4th, 18 GB
Payroll: $94MM (45th)
Major Additions: RF Kole Calhoun, CF Carter McCurry
Major Losses: none
Top Players: 2B Nico Hoerner, SS CJ Abrams, 1B Bren Spillane
Indy hasn't finished above .500 since their inaugural season of 2018, but this year could be their big break. Not to win this division, I don't think, but to reach heights they haven't reached in several years. The game is probably a bit optimistic on the Rounders here, I don't see them finishing ahead of the White Sox. Their rotation will probably hold them back further from actually reaching the playoffs, but the Rounders have an above-average lineup and bullpen in my view. All their best players are cheap, in contrast to their division rivals, so I would think that Indianapolis is well set up for the future as well.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Projected: 87-73
Last Season: 92-68, 1st (#6 seed in AL)
Lost to Yankees 3-1
Payroll: $277MM (1st)
Major Additions: none
Major Losses: CL Edwin Diaz
Top Players: SP Alex Reyes, SP Shoma Goto, RF Mookie Betts
The ChiSox have won this North Division in every season so far, but now look like their position may have been usurped. The team hasn't really gotten worse, but the division has gotten stronger around them. It's impossible not to draw comparisons between this White Sox team and the Nationals team that just won the IRL World Series; this a team with a stellar starting rotation, a lineup with a lot of above-average players headlined by one superstar in Betts, a bullpen that makes you want to run and hide, and a history of playoff ineptitude. CF Harrison Bader has tapped into a power potential that I, a Cardinals fan, had no idea he had: both he and 3B Travis Shaw hit 35+ home runs in 2022. This team has got an absolutely bloated payroll; C Yasmani Grandal is making $29 million per season and he isn't even the starter anymore, and he's one of an astonishing 11 players who are making more than $10 million in 2023.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Projected: 85-75
Last Season: 91-69, 2nd, 1 GB (#7 seed in AL)
Lost to Cherries 3-0
Payroll: $228MM (5th)
Major Additions: SP Michael Fulmer, 2B Tony Kemp, RF Clint Frazier, RP Sam Freeman
Major Losses: SP Tyler Chatwood, CL Dellin Betances, 1B Miguel Cabrera, 2B Cesar Hernandez
Top Players: 3B Matt Chapman, SP Blake Snell, 1B Justin Smoak
I don't really understand the projection system's pessimism here. This is a playoff team from 2022 that looks to have improved; Fulmer had been very good with the Cubs previously and they were more than able to afford him with Miggy's money coming off the books. The Royals are spending an awful lot of money on Charlie Blackmon ($25 million), who can only DH at this point in his career, but led by Chapman, Smoak and CF Mike Siani (40+ doubles in two straight years), this'll still be a good lineup backing up a really good pitching staff. I think they're ticketed for around 90 wins again and will challenge the Twins and White Sox for the division.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Projected: 70-90
Last Season: 74-86, T-4th, 18 GB
Payroll: $142MM (22nd)
Major Additions: SP Antonio Senzatela, CF Mallex Smith, LF Griffin Rivers
Major Losses: SPs Keylan Killgore, Steven Brault
Top Players: 1B Anthony Rizzo, C Gage West, SP Antonio Senzatela
Not an incredibly bad team, but one who is going to struggle in this tough division. I think the projection is slightly kind here, but at least it agrees on last place. This is the final year of Rizzo's contract, and that's really hamstrung this team - he's making $49 million in 2023! That makes him the highest-paid player in baseball by several million at this point, and while he's hit well over the course of the contract it probably doesn't justify the huge dollar value. The only other player of real note is SS Paul DeJong, who's been a league-average shortstop - the rest of the team's really thin.
DETROIT TIGERS
Projected: 67-93
Last Season: 82-78, 3rd, 10 GB
Payroll: $206MM (6th)
Major Additions: SPs Robbie Ray and Mike Clevinger, RPs Matt Barnes and Koda Glover
Major Losses: SPs Max Scherzer and Zach Petrick
Top Players: 3B Manny Machado, 2B Keith Miller, SP Enrique Soto
2022 was a step back for the Tigers after being swept in the 2021 World Series. The loss of Max Scherzer might look like a huge deal, but he's not the pitcher here that he is IRL; he's good, and received some Cy Young votes in 2020, but he missed most of 2022 with a nerve injury. Besides Machado, Miller and Yonder Alonso (famously, Machado's brother-in-law... I guess they did want to play together after all), the lineup looks pretty bad - it looks like they're relying on a key offensive contribution from Billy Hamilton. This team is also dealing with some injury problems at the beginning of 2023; Mike Clevinger won't make his Tigers debut until mid-May after tearing his labrum while with the Braves last season, and SP Aaron Sanchez will be out until at least July. That might be too much for Detroit to overcome.