Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol
It's only "unexplainable" if you don't understand probabilities.
You said they reached the championship series 11 times without winning. So, they then won 1 out of 12 times they reached the CS.
Assuming they were something like to 50/50 to win a series, we'd expect they would have made the WS 6 times. Again, assuming about a 50/50 split, you'd then expect 3 WS wins.
They got 1
If you flipped a coin 6 times and got 1 head, instead of 3, would that be "unexplainable"? Hardly.
If you wanted to figure their real odds of just winning 1 WS in 116 seasons (as opposed to just looking at times they made the CS), you might find it's 1 in 10,000 or something. Certainly rare. But certainly explainable.
That's not to say it's not interesting when it happens in the little universes we've created though.
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Assuming they have a 1/20 chance of winning each year, then over 116 attempts the chance they have winning zero is 0.26% or 1 in 384.
The chance of exactly one victory is 1.59% or 1 in 63.
The chances of winning only once in 12 attempts at the World Series (assuming a 50% chance) is 0.29% or 1 in 341. To fail every time will be a 0.02% probability or 1 in 4096.