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Big free-agent contracts backfire a lot, just like in real life. Lots of stuff is outside your control, just like real life. In my current save I'm doing very well with a middle-market team because 1) I was blessed with a couple of good young, durable cornerstone players who were happy with long-term reasonable-money and 2) there was an expansion draft after the first season that enabled me to ditch the contracts I didn't want.
I'll usually only go for the long-term big-splash FA signing if the guy is rated at least "durable," and even then it can go bad. I'm about to let my ace walk because he's 31, he wants five years, he's "fragile" and he's had a couple of rotator-cuff problems.
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