Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne
he's 21 in AAA, he's very likely close to accurate.
while doing "well" is sort of important and tells you about their progression, you can't compare stats from the minor leagues with MLB.
even if they have the same exact # of games, LTM/LTs and everything. players are infinitely more volatile as far as their makeup (individual ratings) and distribution of telent (overall league) is concerend in the minors. on top of significantly more volatile year-to year for a plethora of reasons as far as league average to baseline variances.
e.g. power isn't displayed until AA/AAA and even then if near ~50 you are monster power hitter. the quantity isn't the same as the mlb unles pure luck. the playres that are "power hitters" now may be middling guys in MLB because they can't go any further than current developemnt -- at ceiling for them, but not really that good.
similar application to a pitcher too... developement is so varied and uneven... nothign similar to what they will be in the majors, even when looking at the same exact person 10 years apart... (different ratings = different person, really -- totally different league and outcomes)
why woudl that throw a wrench in the comparison? well, the distribution is wholey different. the players are wholey different in numerous ways... how it all adds up is completely different etc etc etc...
you can meaningfully compare 1955 AA stats to 1960 AA stats for a player but you cannot compare AA to MLB in a very meaningful way as far as bb/9 or hr/9. (assuming you keep things the same settings-wise).
i'm not saying Zero chance.. i'm saying that the reasoning used is zero chance to be relevant outside of luck. i'm saying if he is successful in spite of low movement, it's not indicated by his mil stats in anyway.
it'll be because his stuff is so high, or because there aren'y many XBH in yourleague etc... directly causal relationship that would reduce the need for movement rating.
a AAA or lower could have a .1hr/9 and still be horrendous in MLB environment for any number of reasons not mentioned above and mentioned above, because it's simply not correlative let alone causal in nature.
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Yes, I get it. I really do. I think, in fact, that I've indicated this several times in this thread. (You know, that minor league stats are not very translatable to major league level, etc.) Just not in quite so many words as you.
Don't get me wrong, I appreciate you taking the time to share this feedback, and as always I respect your experience and thoughtfulness.
And I'm nearly 100% convinced that when he does have a major league career, if he does, it probably won't turn out that well. Though he might have his moments where he looks amazing, racking up the strikeouts. I just imagine those will be the exceptions surrounding by lots and lots of failure.
But. It's a game. I kind of want to play it out and see. Just in case he's some kind of freak of nature, some 1 in a million. At least just for a little while anyway. And then again, who knows, maybe the other theory floated here is correct too and the scouts have, thus far, under-estimated his movement. (Again, I doubt it. But I can't really know for sure yet.)