update: those ratings for the minors looks good still - maybe a tick higher is better, but it's not meant to be a line in the sand. most play with scouting inaccuracy turned on, anyway.
with inaccuracy set to normal or at least on in some fashion, you want to err a bit on the conservative side... when it's borderline, use those stats as a tie-breaker.
use stats that require a smaller sample size to know with some certainty. most importantly, if you don't know what an ~average baseline is for that league and that stat, then the info cannot tell you much.
never overreact to a ~10ERA after 1 or 2 starts after you bump. trust the ratings for longer than that. use smaller sample size stats (google "baseball sample size" -> fangraph result and i'm sure other sites with more info too.)
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