[NoOne]

we aren't talking about trout... if he is injury prone, that is a separate matter that would be assess in a similar manner as assessing harper's injury history.

also, averages tell nothing of volatility. i can find 3 players with a ~380woba and they could be drastically different from each other as far as year-to-year and game-to-game consistency.

in ootp, i'd definitely sign him for that money.... not in RL. he's much better in the game, because he's predictiably amazing due to his ratings.

also, i doubt it's a ~10inning difference between trout and harper. just look at the # of games played. also, trout's numbers are what consistency looks like, in case that was a foreign concept, too.

drastic difference... clearly visible in the stats after 7 and 8 years. one is well worth top dollar... one is 50/50 depending on the year. you know... consistency. not once has harper had back to back seasons of even ~140+ games played. he's a gamble at the high-end.

even so, he may go on a tear for a long time and be amazing... not denying that... but that's hopes and wishes. you can only work with the information on hand, and it clearly points toward a large gamble than you should take for ~25-30M a year. a mistake liek that ruins your franchise for 13 years.