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Old 01-07-2020, 01:02 AM   #11
Ruwisc
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Southwestern Illinois
Posts: 610
2023 NL South Preview



MEMPHIS LIONS
Projected: 87-73
Last Season: 75-85, T-4th, 14 GB
Payroll: $78MM (53rd)
Major Additions: none
Major Losses: none
Top Players: 2B Raynel Delgado, 2B Will Holland, 2B Tyler Callihan

If this were a thing people could bet on, I'd bet a $20 that Memphis doesn't reach this 87-win projection in 2023, and my guess is they're probably actually going to finish below Louisville. You can probably see why - this team has something of a positional logjam, with their four best position players all being middle infielders. Delgado, Holland and Callihan are all primarily 2B, and though Callihan can play SS, their next-best position player after those three is SS Kelvin Smith, a much better defender. Delgado is elite, the team's best player by a good margin, and I would hope a trade is coming to relieve them of this logjam. (I considered trading for Callihan... but why help them when I don't need to? ) Jose Berrios is the staff ace on what should be an average group of pitchers.


LOUISVILLE COLTS
Projected: 83-77
Last Season: 89-71, 1st (#6 seed in NL)
Lost to Bees 3-1
Payroll: $131MM (29th)
Major Additions: 2B Brian Dozier, RF Giancarlo Stanton
Major Losses: RP Toshi tada Watanabe
Top Players: RF Giancarlo Stanton, SS Amed Rosario, 3B Nick Northcut

A reliably above-average team for the last several years, they only went out and added Giancarlo Stanton to the mix, so I'm surprised their projection is as low as it is. It's fun to see him back in the same outfield as LF Christian Yelich, although this save originated on OOTP19 so Yelich's stats aren't as insane as they would be if I were starting on OOTP20. C Carson Kelly is also a really important player for this team. The bullpen might end up making or breaking this team, it's definitely their biggest weakness, even with last year's NL Reliever of the Year in Hidekazu Hirose.


ATLANTA BRAVES
Projected: 81-79
Last Season: 71-89, 6th, 18 GB
Payroll: $75MM (56th)
Major Additions: RP Michael Kirkman, LF Yoenis Cespedes, 2B Javier Baez
Major Losses: 1B Freddie Freeman, CF Mallex Smith, RF Kole Calhoun, SS Jose Iglesias, SP Mike Clevinger, RP Nick Wittgren
Top Players: SP Carson Fulmer, SS Cooper Swanson, 3B Jeans Garcia

I can't really figure out why OOTP thinks this is going to be an above-.500 team - there isn't a player rated higher than 3 stars on the entire roster, and they have three players already ruled out for the whole season. Baez settled for a minor league deal but made the team, and Cespedes was hardly above replacement level with Miami, so those are not the caliber of player that you're used to seeing attached to those names. The pitching staff is average overall, so I suppose the projections are expecting the young left side of the infield, Swanson and Garcia, to carry the weight of the whole lineup.


WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Projected: 75-85
Last Season: 75-85, T-4th, 14 GB
Payroll: $157MM (12th)
Major Additions: C Wilson Ramos, RP Yusmeiro Petit, 1B Adam Lind
Major Losses: RP Jose Ramirez, RF Jason Heyward
Top Players: SP Jose Quintana, 3B Jose Ramirez, 2B Charles Mack

Nationals fans' nightmare is over, since they now no longer have two prominent players with the same name! Jose Ramirez the relief pitcher signed with Baltimore, while the more acclaimed Jose Ramirez sticks around to try to help turn the Nats around after a disappointing 2022. Last season was their first time finishing below .500 in this save, and just four years ago they finished first overall in the NL (before my Bees upset them in the playoffs). On paper, they look clearly better than Atlanta to me, and about even with Memphis, but who knows. The bullpen's pretty bad (the closer is Brett Cecil!), so IRL Nationals fans should feel pretty comfortable easing in with this version of the team as well.


MIAMI MARLINS
Projected: 71-89
Last Season: 84-76, 3rd, 5 GB
Payroll: $91MM (47th)
Major Additions: C Ryan Jeffers
Major Losses: RP Jandel Gustave, LF Yoenis Cespedes
Top Players: 3B Drew Mendoza, 1B Greyson Jenista, LF Daniel Goss

The Marlins have been above .500 every year, so seeing them projected to drop off by so much is a bit surprising for that reason, but in reviewing their roster there isn't a ton to be super optimistic about. Mendoza and Jenista are the players worth talking about - both arbitration-age and so still relatively cheap. Hopefully the Marlins don't waste their best years! An already meh rotation got a death blow when Jeff Hoffman needed to have Tommy John surgery this spring - he's now not even expected to be ready for the start of the 2024 season. The team's strongest unit is the bullpen, even after losing their closer Gustave in free agency.


CHARLOTTE FLYERS
Projected: 68-92
Last Season: 86-75, 2nd, 3 1/2 GB
Lost tiebreaker game to Suns
Payroll: $77MM (54th)
Major Additions: none
Major Losses: RF Nomar Mazara, SP Robbie Ray, RP Koda Glover
Top Players: 2B Tyler Wade, SS Addison Barger, 1B Matt Olson

Losing Nomar Mazara to Minnesota in free agency really hurts. Mazara went to four All-Star games as a Flyer, won a batting title, and averaged more than 5.5 WAR per season in a Charlotte uniform. He had formed a nice partnership with Wade, Barger and Olson over the past several years that made Charlotte one of the NL's best offensive teams. This isn't a very deep team, so any injuries will be a big deal, and lo and behold, they'll begin the season without their shortstop Barger, as well as his backup, Nick Ahmed. Olson holds the single-season record with 61 HR, set in the 2020 season, and has led the NL in RBI three years running.

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