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BMW · 04-25-2019, 09:48 AM

I don't know that there is any rating in the game that would drive "clutch." Perhaps someone else can answer.

Note that there is a good sized body of work on the subject and most conclusions that I have heard is that "clutchness" in sport is statistically not supported so that it's discernable from random luck. And luck can appear to be a trend in a small sample size (i.e. 4 or 5 specific situations where some player was clutch that tend to stand out in fans minds.)

i.e. The general argument was Michael Jordan wasn't any more clutch than other basketball players. He was much better than other basketball players period - hence in "clutch" situations he performed better. But that's an extension of tending to perform better in all situations.

"There remains one more test which is particularly clear-cut and easy to understand. If clutch hitters really exist, one would certainly expect that a batter who was a clutch hitter in 1969 would tend also to be a clutch hitter in 1970. But if no such tendency exists, then "clutch hitting" must surely be a matter of luck. After all, the only means of ever identifying a clutch hitter would be by his consistency, if not from situation to situation at least from season to season.

Such a test is easily performed, by trying to correlate the residuals for players in 1969 with residuals for the same players in 1970. Not even a hint of such a correlation exists (r2 for 60 National League players was .038 and for 62 American League players was .055). This means that there is no tendency for players who were clutch hitters in 1969 to be clutch hitters in 1970. True, a few of the "clutch hitters" in 1969 were also "clutch hitters" in 1970; but as many became "unclutch" and most became average, exactly as would be expected if "clutch hitting" is really a matter of luck."

(http://research.sabr.org/journals/do...-hitters-exist)

For me, if I had to look for clutch in statistics, I would probably look at Win Probability Added in OOTP. It's context senstive to the situation. So getting a 2 RBI single in the bottom of the ninth with two outs in a winning effort will weight more than getting a 2 RBI single in the 5th inning when your team is winning 10-0.

04-25-2019, 09:48 AM	#4
BMW Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,030	I don't know that there is any rating in the game that would drive "clutch." Perhaps someone else can answer. Note that there is a good sized body of work on the subject and most conclusions that I have heard is that "clutchness" in sport is statistically not supported so that it's discernable from random luck. And luck can appear to be a trend in a small sample size (i.e. 4 or 5 specific situations where some player was clutch that tend to stand out in fans minds.) i.e. The general argument was Michael Jordan wasn't any more clutch than other basketball players. He was much better than other basketball players period - hence in "clutch" situations he performed better. But that's an extension of tending to perform better in all situations. "There remains one more test which is particularly clear-cut and easy to understand. If clutch hitters really exist, one would certainly expect that a batter who was a clutch hitter in 1969 would tend also to be a clutch hitter in 1970. But if no such tendency exists, then "clutch hitting" must surely be a matter of luck. After all, the only means of ever identifying a clutch hitter would be by his consistency, if not from situation to situation at least from season to season. Such a test is easily performed, by trying to correlate the residuals for players in 1969 with residuals for the same players in 1970. Not even a hint of such a correlation exists (r2 for 60 National League players was .038 and for 62 American League players was .055). This means that there is no tendency for players who were clutch hitters in 1969 to be clutch hitters in 1970. True, a few of the "clutch hitters" in 1969 were also "clutch hitters" in 1970; but as many became "unclutch" and most became average, exactly as would be expected if "clutch hitting" is really a matter of luck." (http://research.sabr.org/journals/do...-hitters-exist) For me, if I had to look for clutch in statistics, I would probably look at Win Probability Added in OOTP. It's context senstive to the situation. So getting a 2 RBI single in the bottom of the ninth with two outs in a winning effort will weight more than getting a 2 RBI single in the 5th inning when your team is winning 10-0. __________________ Last edited by BMW; 04-25-2019 at 09:50 AM.