Quote:
Originally Posted by bly08
1.) Is there any reason not to use FIP- (Fangraph's park and league adjusted FIP) over FIP? Is there any reason not to use any adjusted stat over their default counterpart? OPS+, etc.
2.) Is WPA useful?
3.) It seems that most of the battle with developing SPs is simply to get the ones with promising stuff to learn three good pitches. Most highly rated young prospects will have two potentially great pitches and something like 3/13 out of 1-20 for a third pitch when coming into the system, and most of them will never learn that third pitch and end up a serviceable reliever at best. I usually play modern day Red Sox saves and I don't ever remember Anderson Espinoza panning out as his third pitch never approaches average. What are the things I can do, besides the usual stuff like making sure prospects don't get blocked, hiring good personnel, looking for good make-up, etc, that will maximize the chances of a prospect learning a third pitch well enough to start?
4.) Should I interpret a drop in velocity for young pitchers as a sign of talent decline? And about how often do SPs who are converted to relievers get a boost in velocity and vice versa?
5.) Does G/F% matter if I have a good defensive outfield?
6.) Lastly, is the way to read pitching BABIP in that I should expect better/worse performance based on if I think my defense is better or worse than what the pitcher had?
Thanks
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1) FIP- is better than FIP. The same for OPS+/OPS.
2) It is, although I think it doesn't work very well in the game for pitchers. It does for batters
3) If they have a third weak pitch, it depends on how strong are the other 2. If stamina is more than 5/8 or 50/80, then you can try him as SP and see how it goes. You can look at pitches / IP and IP / game. If pitches / IP is over 22-25 in a large number of IPs or IP / game is below 5-5.5, then perhaps he's better as a reliever. I've seen Espinoza win Cy Youngs in many simulations with K/9 over 11.0 and BB/9 around 3-4 with that 3rd weak pitch.
4) Yes, it's a decline. If it is just once, don't worry, if it happens twice, start to. The second question... I think the velocity doesn't increase, just that they use their fastball at a higher % over the max velocity. You can see it during games (there is no data saved about velocities or pitch usage afterwards)
5) No, it doesn't. It is nice to have 3 good outfielders, but a low GO% means more line drives and flyballs, which mean more HRs.
6) I read BABIP as an extension of other stats. If FIP- is 90 and BABIP is .400, then that FIP- should be lower. If it is .230, the pitcher is having luck.