Quote:
Originally Posted by gfas
I'll try on a couple of these.
1) Depends what you're doing really. If you're comparing players to each other then the adjusted stat is the way to go, especially if the players in question have a similar number of PA's or IP. I mainly use straight FIP just to compare to ERA to see if a result is likely sustainable or not.
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A question about comparing FIP to ERA, say if I'm trying to decide who to send down in June, pitcher 1 has a low ERA but high FIP, pitcher 2 has a high ERA but low FIP. Even though 2 has technically been pitching better than 1 and has a higher WAR, the results are not the case, and statistically unsustainable performances can often last for an entire season. As a manager, the ERA is really all that matters in the short run, so would you send down 1 or 2? Does it make a difference when comparing relievers with less IP than starters in consideration of sample size? I never send down the low FIP/high ERA guy in hopes that his results will regress to normal, but that rarely happens and I often pay for it.
Same thing for batters, if someone's in a slump and has an unusually low BABIP, do you bench/send him down even though the slump may very well be due to bad luck? Are there other stats to consider?