Quote:
Originally Posted by KBLover
Less walks = More PAs where a HR is a possible result?
If the game resolves BB/K/HR first (let's say in that order, check for a walk, check for contact, then if contact, check for HR), then if there's fewer walks, there's potentially more PAs that can get through to the HR, if they don't get trapped by the K.
Let's say there's 10,000 PAs and normally there's 3,000 BBs.
That leaves 7,000 PAs that could get through to HR, if they don't get caught by K's.
If there's 0 BB, then those 3,000 BBs can then "check" for K's, and if they get by that, they can become HR.
Assuming the same rate for K's, that's more PAs "checking for" HRs.
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I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows outside of the devs, in which order the dice are rolled so to speak. Maybe they just roll them all at once somehow?
If like you say, BBs are decided before HRs in the dice roll, then yes fewer walks could equal more homers. Per batter. But FIP is calculated per inning, and fewer walks equals shorter innings. And the more strikeouts from a good catcher would lower homers per batter, as well as per inning too.
Funny that people are sort of defending my initial results on HR/9 that were probably just random variance. But it's fun to theorize about it.