[Argonaut]

I'm not sure I'm following your logic on why more home runs makes sense... but that's sort of a moot point after looking at this again.

I've since done more testing, and now I'm convinced what I saw with the home run totals was just random variance. I did a few more sets of 10,000 games, and sometimes the HR totals for the 2 Pudge's were similar, and sometimes the edited Pudge gave up more home runs, sometimes fewer.

The K/BB numbers were always consistent though. I thought 10,000 games would be a big enough sample, but maybe you need more? I guess home run totals are really volatile, at least compared to other numbers.

So cancel the alarm, there's probably no invisible arbitrary hand guiding numbers towards expected FIP!

But at least I think I've answered the original question of this thread: Is FIP really fielding independent? The answer is yes, except for catchers who can affect FIP via K/BB rates.

I wager then that defensive catchers are undervalued in terms of WAR, as the extra WAR they generate will go to their lucky pitchers.

PS: I edited Pudge drastically from 218/200 Ability/Arm to 68/50. I also tried a middle ground of 118/100 which had in-between results.