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Old 10-24-2019, 02:33 AM   #7
Argonaut
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
First, thanks for doing these. It's always good and cool when someone takes the time to both study something and then tell people about it. Increasing people's knowledge is a noble endeavor.



It's a shame that batter faced aren't included.

People can, though, easily see that with a worse defense K/9 is increased. Obviously, this is because less batted balls are being turned into outs, so a higher percentage of *outs* (not batters faced) are by strike out.

It is interesting that Maddux's FIP is lower with a bad defense and Glavine's is higher while Smoltz' and Wholers' remain unchanged. I'm trying to think of why this would be, but not being too successful.

Another interesting thing, is that each pitchers' WAR could be influenced by the defense, even in FIP doesn't really change. This is because the innings pitched totals are influenced by defense. Better defense=more outs=more innings pitched. Since WAR is based on innings pitched, not batters faced, better defense should lead to an increase in pitcher WAR. Which also means, that the defensive players themselves are being underrated by WAR - the pitchers are getting credit for what the defensive players did.
Yes I agree, WAR will be higher with a good defense because starting pitchers will stay in longer. But also like you said, strikeouts will be lower. This is why I started the testing, because I was a bit disappointed Nolan Ryan is never hitting 300 K's per year.

But if overall FIP is constant, then where does the extra WAR go with a bad defense and fewer SP innings pitched? It'll go to the long and middle relievers. Wohlers wasn't a good example for this as he won't be closing out as many games with a bad defense. I should have included a middle reliever above, but I do recall them pitching more innings with the worse defense of course.

I hesitate to draw conclusions from the minor changes in FIP for Maddux and Glavine, but my hypothesis is this. Because Maddux is so elite, the best pitcher of the era, despite the innings going longer he's just not giving up more homers and walks -- at least not enough to offset his increased strikeouts. He's doing it all himself. Glavine on the other hand is letting his innings go on far too long, and isn't striking out enough guys to end things. So Maddux looks "better" with a worse defense, and vice versa for Glavine.

Last edited by Argonaut; 10-24-2019 at 02:36 AM.
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