OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - apparently Stuff is very important (quisenberry)

RonCo · 08-31-2019, 07:03 AM

Well...hmmm. You're kind of mixing two arguments. As I said upstream, there's kind of a minimum k-rate floor that seems to apply to stay in the majors, so I think we generally agree there. Though that can bend some, and is dependent on the pitcher's other successes. The Randy Jones case works here. Jones was successful with a low K-rate until his walk rate increased. Once that happened, he was basically done. I'd suggest there are similar ceilings on HR and walk rates that play for strikeouts (as you said, I think)...but these ceilings are dependent on each other, too.

In Ryan's case you're not talking about a guy who was above average as a strikeout guy--you're talking about an elite of the elites. You also should add a note that his HRA rate was quite low. So, yes, with those _two_ things working for him, Nolan Ryan could get away with HUGE walk rates. (Ferguson Jenkins was an example of a guy who gave up a fair chunk of homers--but he led the league in walk rate a lot of times .... as well as struck out a lot of guys--the skills play off each other).

Still, though, I don't think the core of this conversation is about career longevity as much as it is what mix of skill sets serve to get guys out "today" (and how to talk about and label those skills). Nolan Ryan had great "stuff" but so did Gregg Maddux, and Tom Glavine, and Jim Maloney, and yes, Jamie Moyer, and--at his peak--Randy Jones. We can argue about that, I suppose, but I say they all had great "stuff" at some point because I've heard or read of cases where smart baseball people have described these guys as having it--despite the fact that they are all very different pitchers.

Anyway, if we were just sitting around and jawing, I'm sure we'd basically agree a lot.

08-31-2019, 07:03 AM	#44
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Well...hmmm. You're kind of mixing two arguments. As I said upstream, there's kind of a minimum k-rate floor that seems to apply to stay in the majors, so I think we generally agree there. Though that can bend some, and is dependent on the pitcher's other successes. The Randy Jones case works here. Jones was successful with a low K-rate until his walk rate increased. Once that happened, he was basically done. I'd suggest there are similar ceilings on HR and walk rates that play for strikeouts (as you said, I think)...but these ceilings are dependent on each other, too. In Ryan's case you're not talking about a guy who was above average as a strikeout guy--you're talking about an elite of the elites. You also should add a note that his HRA rate was quite low. So, yes, with those _two_ things working for him, Nolan Ryan could get away with HUGE walk rates. (Ferguson Jenkins was an example of a guy who gave up a fair chunk of homers--but he led the league in walk rate a lot of times .... as well as struck out a lot of guys--the skills play off each other). Still, though, I don't think the core of this conversation is about career longevity as much as it is what mix of skill sets serve to get guys out "today" (and how to talk about and label those skills). Nolan Ryan had great "stuff" but so did Gregg Maddux, and Tom Glavine, and Jim Maloney, and yes, Jamie Moyer, and--at his peak--Randy Jones. We can argue about that, I suppose, but I say they all had great "stuff" at some point because I've heard or read of cases where smart baseball people have described these guys as having it--despite the fact that they are all very different pitchers. Anyway, if we were just sitting around and jawing, I'm sure we'd basically agree a lot. Last edited by RonCo; 08-31-2019 at 07:08 AM.