Quote:
Originally Posted by itsmb8
Thats the issue I, and most likely others, have. ZIPS seems to underrate certain teams at the jump, for example this past season, Milwaukee would usually finish under .500 in sims when in reality they finished with the best record in the National League. And tbh, it really wasnt surprising at all, everyone knew Yelich would do better being in Miller Park and everyone knew Cain can still play.
To be quite honest, I think basing ratings off of projections from a single source makes it prone to stupid inaccuracies because of human bias, whereas going off of 3-4+ projections or past season stats would be a lot better.
EDIT: As another example, I just ran another 2018 sim, all default settings and this is what I found:
Sim record / Real record
Milwaukee: 71-90 / 96-67
Colorado: 71-90 / 91-72
Texas: 66-95 / 67-95
Cincinnati: 90-71 / 67-95
Philadelphia: 94-67 / 80-82
Atlanta: 76-85 / 90-72
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Well, it's pretty easy to say that a projection system has underrated a team AFTER the team has performed well. Of course, if you ran the Brewers' 2018 season hundreds of times, you might well have just as many times that they win 73 games as 96.
This article from by Jeff Sullivan (at Fangraphs, before he was cruelly snatched away by the Rays) looks at the projections entering 2018:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/here-is-...projections-2/. ZIPS saw them as a 79-win team; the fans saw them as an 82-win team. No one saw them as a 96-win team at the time.
This article by Sam Miller (then at Baseball Prospectus) goes into all the bizarre things that might come to pass when you simulate a season (2016) a million times:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...-city-1000000/
The fact that OOTP leads to results that differ from what we later see happen in real life strikes me as a feature and not a bug. It wouldn't be much fun if everything turned out the same way every time!