Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold
It's not zips fault - we only really use them for creating the current player ratings. Anything that happens after that is the player creation/player development engine at work.
Why your team BABIP is higher than before could be many factors. Maybe you simply have better players, or better BABIP players. Maybe the other teams in your division are playing terrible players at SS against you giving you a lot of extra hits. Maybe league stats have spiraled up, or league offense has increased, or there's something weird going on with your park factors.
There's a lot of possibilities, but if you're anything past the first year of a new game, it's not Zips at play. And anyways, we've been using zips for ratings for the last 2-3 years now (since OOTP 16 or 17, I think).
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Thats the issue I, and most likely others, have. ZIPS seems to underrate certain teams at the jump, for example this past season, Milwaukee would usually finish under .500 in sims when in reality they finished with the best record in the National League. And tbh, it really wasnt surprising at all, everyone knew Yelich would do better being in Miller Park and everyone knew Cain can still play.
To be quite honest, I think basing ratings off of projections from a single source makes it prone to stupid inaccuracies because of human bias, whereas going off of 3-4+ projections or past season stats would be a lot better.
EDIT: As another example, I just ran another 2018 sim, all default settings and this is what I found:
Sim record / Real record
Milwaukee: 71-90 / 96-67
Colorado: 71-90 / 91-72
Texas: 66-95 / 67-95
Cincinnati: 90-71 / 67-95
Philadelphia: 94-67 / 80-82
Atlanta: 76-85 / 90-72