Quote:
Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla
These 7 are presented in order of their composite scores, highest to lowest.
Edgar Martinez 3B (5.0, ret 1999), 3191 hits, 466 HRs, 1798 RBI, 1 Batting Title, 1 RBI Title, 8x AS, 287/371/473, npa OPS+ 129...of his 9 most similar players, 6 are HOFers and 3 are on this list of 7 that meet current HOF criteria.
Matty Alou LF (4.4, ret 2000), 2950 hits, 7x H leader, 1 batting title, 2x AS, 2x GG, 264 SB, 317/249/414, npa OPS+ 110....5 of 9 most similar in the HOF.
Bob Bailey 3B (3.9, ret 2004), 2908 hits, 424 HRs, 1691 RBI, 3 RBI titles, 7x AS, 275/357/456, npa OPS+ 124....5 of 9 most similar in HOF, 3 of remaining 4 on this list of 7.
Mike Carp 1B (3.6 ret 2003), 2711 hits, 479 HRs, 1652 RBI, 1 RBI title, 8x AS, 285/391/491, npa OPS+ 140....5 of 8 most similar (eligible) in HOF.
Jim Ray Hart 3B (3.4 ret 2004), 2848 H, 519 HR, 1714 RBI, ROY, 7x AS, 278/337/482, npa OPS+ 118.....4 of 8 most similar (eligible) in HOF and 1 of remaining 4 on list of 7.
Ted Easterly C (3.3, ret 2000), 2538 H, GG @ C, 4x AS, 310/353/427, npa OPS+ 116.....1 of 9 most similar in HOF.
Ron Fairly CF (2.7, ret 1999), 3331 H, 579 2B, 393 HR, 1671 RBI, GG, 5x AS, 281/374/437, npa OPS+ 124.....7 of 9 most similar in HOF, remaining 2 on list of 7.
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I was going over this post from the previous page regarding those who players who might have been in the class of 2013. They all had the qualifications, based on the numbers that were used for that class, but only one player was inducted in RL, so only one got inducted here, and it was not one of them. It was a first balloter, Mize, instead.
Posting these candidates (and the ones that followed as having VS inductable numbers) was the first time I had taken the time to do such an exercise. I could eyeball what I had in the sheet, but never meticulously looked at all of them, since it was really of no value to spend time doing it, until I was waiting for the 2013 announcement and was in a holding pattern because of that.
I was looking over this list of 7 and I asked myself, who is really better of the seven? If you knew that these were the numbers each would put up for his career, and you had your pick, who is the best? Really, they are all excellent, and I came to the conclusion that it would really boil down to team need and team philosophy as to which I would prefer. These are all legitimate HOF careers. However, it was Mize that got in.
It was the design of the First Ballot Standard to have players newly eligible jump into the Hall ahead of those worthy and waiting for a slot if they were just THAT much better. Johnny Mize's career IS that much better than these other seven, so his quick entry is proper, and more importantly, reflective of the RL process.
I have no mechanism in place that gradiates player chances based on time eligible. Nothing specifically mimics the ascension of Burt Blyleven to 75%.
However, when a player enters on the First Ballot standard, he will raise the bar in both the Ink and the HOF metrics...that is how a player meets the First Ballot criteria...he has Ink and HOF composites above the Hall average and, therefore, raises the standards of both.
The overall composite score is not used in itself for determining an induction, but it is an indication of what a player's overall chances of entering the Hall are. Because Mize is inducted ahead of all seven players, and his induction raises the standard applied to future inductees (though with over 200 players in, one player's impact isn't very great) a dynamic is invoked that makes the immediate induction of a Fairly, Eaterly, or Hart, less likely. If the standard is raised to the point that any of these players no longer meet the new standard, then, as a consequence, it is more likely for a Martinez, Alou, Bailey, or Carp to get in when a slot, or slots open.
If the standards are the same as they were before 2013, and Ron Fairly gets in, we can say that he belongs in the HOF, and though we may think Martinez is more deserving, we can't say Fairly doesn't belong. We can create a story line about Fairly being exceptionally good to the fans, running the coolest golf events, visiting sick kids in the hospital (even when there are no news cameras around) and the voters decided it would be nice to put him in sooner rather than later.
If the standards are higher, and his numbers don't justify him being inducted, then perhaps Martinez or Alou get in, instead, and Fairly may have to wait for the VC to honor the 'good guy' at a later time. (None of this is to imply that Martinez or any other player on the list are bad guys, IRL....just using the names as a fictional example).
This dynamic I really like. As I mentioned before, there is no "build up of votes" that is part of the process I am using, but I think the dynamics that are put in play
simulate this accumulation of support. And, after all, this is a baseball
simulation that is in play.