Thread: Draft Strategy?
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:21 PM   #9
NoOne
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never, never, never go by the AI scout's recommendation :P

I strongly suggest neutral scout so they don't skew the overall/potential ratings. you will skew them accordign to age and potential changes with the younger players. the college kids will be more defined. -like velo changes for a 17-18y.o. is way more likely than for a 21+ college kid.

You want to break players into tiers... this will help recognize weak drafts and strong drafts over time, too, because you get more familiar with distribution as you break it down. Also, if you see some 'need' that's deeper, this can help you more efficiently draft. you can take the dwinding similar tiered quality, knowing you'll still have opportunities with players you like in that need and a glut of prospects the next round.

Make some shortlists... players you are willing to spend a first rounder on (be realistic about your pick)... players you are willing to spend a 2nd rounder on... you probably don't have to go far. it very quickly becomes a total crapshoot and you should just be looking for specific attributes or younger or whatever you think gives best chance at lucky guesses.

how far do you stretch from that quality? upto you. same with ranges of quality. i suggest small ranges for first rounders, than increasingly cavalier. Remember accuracy is horrible, but it's all you got. the stats from hs/coll don't translate just like RL. once they are below average mlb'ers, test out some different stategies.

e.g. i think movement is the toughest thing to find in lower round pitchers. so i sort by that with some minimum stuff/control and look for anything that stands out. it doesn't have to be the top name. ** i'm looking for high stuff, but movement is poor accuracy and the higher it is the better chances it's suitable. i want those guys at thte top and cherry pick the higher stuff guys.

looking for extremely good ratings mixed with bad isn't a bad idea either.. these guys are probably the best bet of maximizing any TCR changes than someone with just a bunch of midle of the road ratings. relievers and batters work well under this strategy, imo.

best player available, but if you don't understand how to compare a batters value to a pitchers value, it is just a stab in the dark anytime a decision involving a batter and pitcher of the same tier of quality.

it's probably never a good idea to draft RP high, but you have to do it occasionally if you want some elite and cheap relievers. i'd say i take a RP in late first round-early 2nd 1 or 2 times out of ten years? ratings have to justify it, but even so they never touch the game enough over the course of 162g to justify it.

plus, it's twice as difficult to find and develop 5 sp. batters are more predictable, if accurately rated. pitchers have a whole 'nother layer of crazy in that regard.

While overall is a strongly correlated, you may like certain attributes that don't quite show up in overall/potential, especially at younger ages. e.g. velo may increase, or you are looking at an elite obp/lead-off type role and they are simply underrated often due to mediocre-to-average power.

I only take a batter in top 5-10 picks if they are generational quality. most of my first rounders are SP. a slugger with high contact is an equivalent and rare to see, but i jump at them when i see them.

Last edited by NoOne; 10-25-2019 at 02:33 PM.
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