[sixto]

There were thousands of people - most of them paying SABR dues - who argued that Beltran was overrated and not worth the hassle of obtaining for a few months of service.

Now, with the Astros staring down a possible playoff for the NL Wild Card, the time to contemplate Beltran's value is due.

Hitting .278/.367/.534 as a centerfielder (a position that the average fan misunderstands in terms of average offensive production) for KC, Beltran has modestly upgraded his numbers in Houston (.259/.372/.569) which, if park factors follow observation, means he was hitting marginally better in KC. Either way the difference is insubstantial and Beltran's traditional stats include 38 HR and 104 RBI, the former being a career high already by 9. A peak-type season for a player who is - what do you know! - 27.

Who are some other, cheaper players who have hit as well as Beltran this year? Well let's see. For next to nothing, you can have Brady Clark's .280/.385/.397 - certainly someone who can contribute on a good team. He does the Brewers little good and he would not have provided the Astros with the amount of production they got from Beltran. Jason Michaels? Stats about identical to Clark's.

How about Mark Kotsay? Not dirt cheap, but cheaper than, say, Beltran: .315/.372/.461. A nice player. A definite contributor, especially if you believe the defensive metrics that say he's one of the best. With an OBP figure about identical to Beltran's, though, the battle is between Kotsay's defense and the difference in their SLG.

Even if Kotsay's defense were somehow worth 100 points of SLG, there's still one big problem: the A's have him. They weren't about to deal him. If the Astros felt they had a deficiency in CF, then what they needed to do was not just acquire an OF better than Hidalgo, they needed to acquire an OF better than Hidalgo who was available.

Steve Finley? Not as good as Beltran and hardly a better risk for the long term. Melvin Mora? I don't think he was available. Aaron Rowand? Do you think he's for real? Was he available?

Jason Lane? The question every statistical maven out there is asking is, is Carlos Beltran so much better than Jason Lane that the Astros needed to acquire Beltran? Lane's part-time seasonal resume boasts a .267/.344/.459 line that is not quite as good as his career line of .277/.349/.524.

If Lane, who's 27, could have put up the peak season he could be expected to provide this year in place of Beltran, could he have matched Beltran's performance? Was that a risk worth taking, worth taking more than the risk of trading for Beltran?

It's a very, very big risk. A job-loser of a risk if you're wrong. As usual, the Phillies make a nice comparison. Marlon Byrd, another stathead fave, crashed back to earth this year. Byrd has now played poorly in 3 major-league semesters and very well in the other, the 2nd half of 2003. I wanted very much for Marlon Byrd to be a good, cheap player, but when the season is on the line, leaving your fate up to Marlon Byrd, or Jason Lane, or Nick Swisher, is a huge risk. The A's are, appropriately, going to put this assertion to this test in the next few days and, if they're lucky, weeks.

If the Astros win by a single game, it's pretty safe to say that Beltran was that one-game difference. Over a period of 5, 10 years, his value might not be so obvious. But they don't give out pennants for the best five-year record.

If the Astros don't make the playoffs, what did they really lose? Not their fans (as the Phillies have). And not the chance to get next year's equivalent of Beltran.

There are legitimate fears given his size and injury history, that Beltran will be a .250/.330/.440 hitter by the third or fourth year of his next contract. But the Astros don't have to worry about that unless they sign him. So again I say, why not go for it? Because you can't live without John Buck?

I'd have traded for Carlos Beltran in mid-season and I'd do it again, every time. I'd have given up good prospects to get him because good prospects are just that, prospects. What the Twins have shown is that if you are so dependent upon your prospects that you can't spare one, you simply don't have enough prospects. Of course the Yankees showed this about 8 years ago.

Beltran is not overrated; he's underrated because there are few CFs in the game who can hit like he does. More importantly, though, he was available and the team that got him is better than they were before they did.

There are many ways to build a good team for the long haul, and most of them don't require Carlos Beltran. But if you want to reach the postseason in one given season, acquiring a player of his caliber is the right move and would be, even if he fails to help his team to the postseason. The Phillies called and the Astros raised, and that is why the fans of one team are fighting heart palpitations while fans of the other are talking more about the NHL work stoppage than baseball.