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Kett · 07-14-2004, 08:06 PM

I have spent the last few days look at the number of draft rounds and how they affect the distribution in talent in leagues. I remember someone doing this kind of analysis for ver 4 but I figured, a completly new version must bread completely different results. And as it turns outs, it is different, as the previous one recomended 3 rounds.

I did this analysis, using the default league settings and the default league file. As a measure of ability I used OPS as my stat of choice. Why? Because its easier to calculate than runs created, and besides runs created its the best stat to rate an individuals performance.

I simmed 25 seasons for various rounds of drafting. To analyze, I took the players with the top 200 plate appearance totals for the last season simmed, breaking down OPS in .05 intervals to split up all the players. I then compared that season with the breakdown for the actual 2003 MLB Season.

My Results: I found that the best number of rounds is 5. For round amounts less than that, there is not enough talent to spread out over the entire league, so the poor starters are poorer than those of the Major Leagues. Also, because the talent level is lower overall, the really good players look even better, so the league is top heavy if you will. As for round amounts greater than 5, the talent starts to become too good for league (this is all in comparison to the 2003 season, so the results may desired for a fictional league). What ends up happening, is the really good players become just good, with the top players numbers decreasing relative to the league. And overall there are just more good players hitting at or near the average OPS.

Actually, I just looked at the distribution for 1965, and it is different from the current year. In 1965, from looking at the numbers, the league did not have as much talent, so the proper number of rounds is more like 3 rounds. And for 1930 it looks like it should be about 2 rounds.

Well thats about it, just though I'd share that with the OOTP world, contribute my little bit, to such a great game.

07-14-2004, 08:06 PM	#1
Kett Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 77	A Look into Draft Sizes I have spent the last few days look at the number of draft rounds and how they affect the distribution in talent in leagues. I remember someone doing this kind of analysis for ver 4 but I figured, a completly new version must bread completely different results. And as it turns outs, it is different, as the previous one recomended 3 rounds. I did this analysis, using the default league settings and the default league file. As a measure of ability I used OPS as my stat of choice. Why? Because its easier to calculate than runs created, and besides runs created its the best stat to rate an individuals performance. I simmed 25 seasons for various rounds of drafting. To analyze, I took the players with the top 200 plate appearance totals for the last season simmed, breaking down OPS in .05 intervals to split up all the players. I then compared that season with the breakdown for the actual 2003 MLB Season. My Results: I found that the best number of rounds is 5. For round amounts less than that, there is not enough talent to spread out over the entire league, so the poor starters are poorer than those of the Major Leagues. Also, because the talent level is lower overall, the really good players look even better, so the league is top heavy if you will. As for round amounts greater than 5, the talent starts to become too good for league (this is all in comparison to the 2003 season, so the results may desired for a fictional league). What ends up happening, is the really good players become just good, with the top players numbers decreasing relative to the league. And overall there are just more good players hitting at or near the average OPS. Actually, I just looked at the distribution for 1965, and it is different from the current year. In 1965, from looking at the numbers, the league did not have as much talent, so the proper number of rounds is more like 3 rounds. And for 1930 it looks like it should be about 2 rounds. Well thats about it, just though I'd share that with the OOTP world, contribute my little bit, to such a great game.